Next Matchday is September 6, 2011. I'll post the full schedule on Monday (or Sunday night if I'm feeling ambitious). One note-the Grenada/St.Vincent game scheduled for the 6th has been moved to the 18th. Not sure why and a cursory google search tells me nothing so I'll try and clarify why that is when I can. In-depth recaps of September's games will come following the 6th.
Asia (10 games, Round 3, Groups 1-5), North America (11 games, Round 2, Groups 1-6):
Completed Games
Thailand 1-2 Australia
North Korea 0-1 Japan
Lebanon 0-6 South Korea
Uzbekistan 1-0 Tajikistan
Singapore 1-2 China
Jordan 2-0 Iraq
Saudi Arabia 0-0 Oman
Kuwait 3-2 U.A.E.
Indonesia 0-3 Iran
Qatar 0-0 Bahrain
Belize 3-0 Grenada
U.S. Virgin Islands 0-6 Haiti
Bermuda 0-1 Trinidad/Tobago
Cayman Islands 0-1 Suriname
Nicaragua 2-0 Dominica
Curacao 2-5 Antigua/Barbuda
Puerto Rico 0-0 Saint Kitts/Nevis
Saint Lucia 1-4 Canada
Barbados 0-2 Guyana
Dominican Rep. 2-3 El Salvador
Saint Vincent/Grenadines 0-4 Guatemala
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Thursday, August 25, 2011
North America: Round 2-Group 6 Primer
World Ranking
Antigua/Barbuda-106th (11th North America)
Curacao-166th (26th North America)
Haiti-116th (15th North America)
U.S. Virgin Islands-149th (23rd North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Antigua/Barbuda
Antigua/Barbuda
Antigua/Barbuda is the 2nd seed in this group and is presently the highest-ranked squad of the four teams. Good news for Antigua/Barbuda, bad news for the quality of the group. Group 6 is probably the weakest group from head to toe in CONCACAF, with no top 10 teams on the continent in the group. Antigua's record in the past 12 months has not been world-beating, ending with a pair of losses in the Caribbean Championship to Jamaica and Guadeloupe. The only result they've put up in 2011 was a draw against an overrated Grenada squad in a friendly in May. Luckily for Antigua/Barbuda, they find themselves in a group with only one true competitor for the top spot in Haiti, who they will not meet until November. Games against Curacao and U.S. Virgin Islands need to be taken advantage of not only to ensure points are not lost but to improve all facets of their game prior to the decisive series with Haiti.
Curacao
Having formerly competed as Netherlands Antilles, this will be their first qualifying campaign as Curacao. Curacao was a surprise in 2010 qualifying, advancing to Round 2 and falling to 2014 groupmate Haiti 1-0 on aggregate. Unfortunately for Curacao, their only positive result since those games were a victory over weakling Aruba in 2010. That result against Haiti is about all Curacao has going for it as it enters qualifying for 2014. And unfortunately for them the teams have gone in opposite directions since as Haiti has only improved while Curacao has plummeted. They showed last time around the potential to compete at this stage of qualifying but if they perform as they have in all games since, they will be facing a long road in the next few months.
Haiti
Haiti is another team that has struggled of late along with their fellow group members. Difference between Haiti and other teams is the calibre of opponent in which they face. 6 games since the start of 2010, they've faced the likes of El Salvador and Argentina (losses) along with highly-rated Asian side Qatar (win). In my opinion, Haiti makes the right decision in regard to the opponents they seek out. You might not win your games but you will only get better by facing strong competition. Winning games has not been a problem historically for this team however, as evidenced by their 2 losses in 22 career games against this group. Another benefit for Haiti was the recent announcement that upgrades to stadiums within Haiti are completed and they will be allowed to play games at home, something that was up in the air for weeks leading up to these games. If Haiti can continue their air of dominance over their groupmates in the next few months then they could have one of the easiest roads of a top seed in this round.
U.S. Virgin Islands
They are definitely a minnow in this group. They've played 3 games in 2011, and those are the only 3 games they've played since last qualifying campaign. In Round 1, U.S. Virgin Islands won out over neighbour and rival British Virgin Islands to advance to this stage. But 2 victories over BVI and a draw with Anguilla is a far cry below the competition they're going to meet in this group. With no results to go off of since a 10-0 loss to Grenada in 2010 qualifying, it's safe to say that USVI will not be a force in Group 6.
September Games:
Game 1
Curacao at Antigua/Barbuda
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:30 pm EDT
Location: Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda
Game 2
U.S. Virgin Islands at Haiti
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Game 3
Haiti at Curacao
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad, Curacao
Game 4
Antigua/Barbuda at U.S. Virgin Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Paul E. Joseph Stadium, Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands
Barring a major upset, this group will be decided entirely in November when Antigua/Barbuda and Haiti meet. I'd be surprised if either team does not grab 6 points this month.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
Antigua/Barbuda-106th (11th North America)
Curacao-166th (26th North America)
Haiti-116th (15th North America)
U.S. Virgin Islands-149th (23rd North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Curacao at Antigua/Barbuda
- U.S. Virgin Islands at Haiti
- Haiti at Curacao
- Antigua/Barbuda at U.S. Virgin Islands
- Haiti at U.S. Virgin Islands
- Antigua/Barbuda at Curacao
- Curacao at Haiti
- U.S. Virgin Islands at Antigua/Barbuda
- Haiti at Antigua/Barbuda
- Curacao at U.S. Virgin Islands
- Antigua/Barbuda at Haiti
- U.S. Virgin Islands at Curacao
Antigua/Barbuda
- 2011 to date: 0-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-2-0
- vs. Group opponents: 3-8-3
- 2011 to date: 0-2-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 4-11-5
- 2011 to date: 0-1-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-3-4
- vs. Group opponents: 16-2-4
- 2011 to date: 2-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-0
- vs. Group opponents: 0-2-0
Antigua/Barbuda
Antigua/Barbuda is the 2nd seed in this group and is presently the highest-ranked squad of the four teams. Good news for Antigua/Barbuda, bad news for the quality of the group. Group 6 is probably the weakest group from head to toe in CONCACAF, with no top 10 teams on the continent in the group. Antigua's record in the past 12 months has not been world-beating, ending with a pair of losses in the Caribbean Championship to Jamaica and Guadeloupe. The only result they've put up in 2011 was a draw against an overrated Grenada squad in a friendly in May. Luckily for Antigua/Barbuda, they find themselves in a group with only one true competitor for the top spot in Haiti, who they will not meet until November. Games against Curacao and U.S. Virgin Islands need to be taken advantage of not only to ensure points are not lost but to improve all facets of their game prior to the decisive series with Haiti.
Curacao
Having formerly competed as Netherlands Antilles, this will be their first qualifying campaign as Curacao. Curacao was a surprise in 2010 qualifying, advancing to Round 2 and falling to 2014 groupmate Haiti 1-0 on aggregate. Unfortunately for Curacao, their only positive result since those games were a victory over weakling Aruba in 2010. That result against Haiti is about all Curacao has going for it as it enters qualifying for 2014. And unfortunately for them the teams have gone in opposite directions since as Haiti has only improved while Curacao has plummeted. They showed last time around the potential to compete at this stage of qualifying but if they perform as they have in all games since, they will be facing a long road in the next few months.
Haiti
Haiti is another team that has struggled of late along with their fellow group members. Difference between Haiti and other teams is the calibre of opponent in which they face. 6 games since the start of 2010, they've faced the likes of El Salvador and Argentina (losses) along with highly-rated Asian side Qatar (win). In my opinion, Haiti makes the right decision in regard to the opponents they seek out. You might not win your games but you will only get better by facing strong competition. Winning games has not been a problem historically for this team however, as evidenced by their 2 losses in 22 career games against this group. Another benefit for Haiti was the recent announcement that upgrades to stadiums within Haiti are completed and they will be allowed to play games at home, something that was up in the air for weeks leading up to these games. If Haiti can continue their air of dominance over their groupmates in the next few months then they could have one of the easiest roads of a top seed in this round.
U.S. Virgin Islands
They are definitely a minnow in this group. They've played 3 games in 2011, and those are the only 3 games they've played since last qualifying campaign. In Round 1, U.S. Virgin Islands won out over neighbour and rival British Virgin Islands to advance to this stage. But 2 victories over BVI and a draw with Anguilla is a far cry below the competition they're going to meet in this group. With no results to go off of since a 10-0 loss to Grenada in 2010 qualifying, it's safe to say that USVI will not be a force in Group 6.
September Games:
Game 1
Curacao at Antigua/Barbuda
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:30 pm EDT
Location: Sir Vivian Richards Stadium, St. John's, Antigua/Barbuda
Game 2
U.S. Virgin Islands at Haiti
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stade Sylvio Cator, Port-au-Prince, Haiti
Game 3
Haiti at Curacao
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Stadion Ergilio Hato, Willemstad, Curacao
Game 4
Antigua/Barbuda at U.S. Virgin Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Paul E. Joseph Stadium, Frederiksted, U.S. Virgin Islands
Barring a major upset, this group will be decided entirely in November when Antigua/Barbuda and Haiti meet. I'd be surprised if either team does not grab 6 points this month.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Antigua/Barbuda-6 pts
Haiti-6 pts
Curacao-0 pts
U.S. Virgin Islands-0 pts
North America: Round 2-Group 5 Primer
World Ranking
Belize-148th (22nd North America)
Grenada-118th (16th North America)
Guatemala-113th (13th North America)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (25th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Belize
Belize
The highest ranked team in Round 1, they've leapt from 26th to 22nd in CONCACAF on the strength of 2 victories against Montserrat. Of all of the lowest-seeded teams, comprised primarily of Round 1 winners, Belize has the best shot at possibly advancing to Round 3. Part of that is calibre of team they are able to put on the field but they're also going to benefit from having a very weak group. Despite being the lowest seed, Belize is actually currently ranked 3rd in the group and the top-seed Grenada hasn't won a competitive game all year. Belize has been given a group in which they can make noise in if they so choose. Belize's team is formed primarily of domestic players and they will rely heavily on 5 players who play in the strong Honduran leagu, including goalkeeper Shane Moody-Orio and forward Deon McCaulay who scored 4 goals in their 2-leg Round 1 matchup with Montserrat. Those Honduran-based players form the core of Belize's team and if they are on their game, Belize will have a legitimate chance of advancing from this group. Last game that Belize played against a group opponent was a friendly against Guatemala in 2010, which they lost 4-2.
Grenada
Easily, the worst top seed in Round 2, Grenada is in my opinion not even the primary challenger for the top spot. I believe they firmly rest third in a pecking order in this group behind Guatemala and Belize. Grenada is winless on the year and in their last 10 matches dating back to 2010. Most recently they competed at the 2011 Gold Cup where they posted losses to Jamaica, Honduras and groupmate Guatemala, allowing a combined 15 goals in the process. I've said before that momentum matters in international soccer and this is a perfect example of a team that is caught in a downward spiral. One saving grace for Grenada is that they won't have to deal with Guatemala until November, so that's hopefully enough time to pick up some wins and erase the memory of a 4-0 loss in June to exit the Gold Cup.
Guatemala
No less then 3 coaches of top-seeded Round 2 teams said ahead of the preliminary draw that the one team they wanted to avoid at this stage was Guatemala, and with reason. Amongst their records this year: wins against Grenada, draws against Honduras and Bolivia, a narrow loss to Mexico (Guatemala led at halftime). It's especially true that this group would have wanted to avoid Guatemala. None of their group opponents have ever defeated Guatemala. While they are the favourite in the group, they will have a tough task ahead of them; Belize played well in Round 1 and has competed with Guatemala before and there's no telling when the lightswitch might go on again for Grenada. Between those two opponents, Guatemala will still need to be at their best if they hope to return to Round 3 as they did last campaign.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
St.Vincent have the honour of both the longest name of a nation participating in the World Cup as well as the most name variations which I write out depending on my mood and how much space I have to work with. Saint Vincent is a team outside the bottom echelon in CONCACAF but not one who is a going to really challenge to take the group. It's unfortunate that they haven't been able to string together some positive results and have fallen so far down in the continental rankings (they were 13th in CONCACAF last qualifying campaign). I wouldn't rule them out entirely though; in a pair of friendlies with "top-seeded" Grenada last year they posted a 1-0 loss and a 0-0 draw. If they can repeat that performance then thye might have a shot. We'll know a lot more about the form they're in after Sunday as they play a pair of friendlies tomorrow and Sunday against Antigua/Barbuda (ranked 11th in CONCACAF).
September Games:
Game 1
Belize at Grenada
September 2, 2011
Time: 3:30 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada
Game 2
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
September 2, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala
Game 3
Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
September 6, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines
Game 4
Guatemala at Belize
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize
Group 5 is very intriguing because I'm not sure exactly where each team stands right now relative to each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see some timid play to open the group and probably a fair number of draws throughout the course of the campaign. Belize/Grenada in Game 1 is a tossup. I expect Guatemala to win Game 2. Grenada should win Game 3 but nothing they've done this year makes me convinced they will and Game 4 is again a tossup. It's going to be fun to watch, simply because there is no overwhelming top seed like we've seen in most of the other CONCACAF groups so far.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts
Belize-148th (22nd North America)
Grenada-118th (16th North America)
Guatemala-113th (13th North America)
St.Vincent/Grenadines-158th (25th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Belize at Grenada
- St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
- Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
- Guatemala at Belize
- Grenada at Belize
- Guatemala at St.Vincent/Grenadines
- St.Vincent/Grenadines at Grenada
- Belize/Guatemala
- Grenada at Guatemala
- St.Vincent/Grenadines at Belize
- Guatemala at Grenada
- Belize at St.Vincent/Grenadines
Belize
- 2011 to date: 2-2-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
- vs. Group opponents: 0-4-2
- 2011 to date: 0-5-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6
- 2011 to date: 2-5-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-2
- vs. Group opponents: 6-0-2
- 2011 to date: 0-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
- vs. Group opponents: 5-6-6
Belize
The highest ranked team in Round 1, they've leapt from 26th to 22nd in CONCACAF on the strength of 2 victories against Montserrat. Of all of the lowest-seeded teams, comprised primarily of Round 1 winners, Belize has the best shot at possibly advancing to Round 3. Part of that is calibre of team they are able to put on the field but they're also going to benefit from having a very weak group. Despite being the lowest seed, Belize is actually currently ranked 3rd in the group and the top-seed Grenada hasn't won a competitive game all year. Belize has been given a group in which they can make noise in if they so choose. Belize's team is formed primarily of domestic players and they will rely heavily on 5 players who play in the strong Honduran leagu, including goalkeeper Shane Moody-Orio and forward Deon McCaulay who scored 4 goals in their 2-leg Round 1 matchup with Montserrat. Those Honduran-based players form the core of Belize's team and if they are on their game, Belize will have a legitimate chance of advancing from this group. Last game that Belize played against a group opponent was a friendly against Guatemala in 2010, which they lost 4-2.
Grenada
Easily, the worst top seed in Round 2, Grenada is in my opinion not even the primary challenger for the top spot. I believe they firmly rest third in a pecking order in this group behind Guatemala and Belize. Grenada is winless on the year and in their last 10 matches dating back to 2010. Most recently they competed at the 2011 Gold Cup where they posted losses to Jamaica, Honduras and groupmate Guatemala, allowing a combined 15 goals in the process. I've said before that momentum matters in international soccer and this is a perfect example of a team that is caught in a downward spiral. One saving grace for Grenada is that they won't have to deal with Guatemala until November, so that's hopefully enough time to pick up some wins and erase the memory of a 4-0 loss in June to exit the Gold Cup.
Guatemala
No less then 3 coaches of top-seeded Round 2 teams said ahead of the preliminary draw that the one team they wanted to avoid at this stage was Guatemala, and with reason. Amongst their records this year: wins against Grenada, draws against Honduras and Bolivia, a narrow loss to Mexico (Guatemala led at halftime). It's especially true that this group would have wanted to avoid Guatemala. None of their group opponents have ever defeated Guatemala. While they are the favourite in the group, they will have a tough task ahead of them; Belize played well in Round 1 and has competed with Guatemala before and there's no telling when the lightswitch might go on again for Grenada. Between those two opponents, Guatemala will still need to be at their best if they hope to return to Round 3 as they did last campaign.
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
St.Vincent have the honour of both the longest name of a nation participating in the World Cup as well as the most name variations which I write out depending on my mood and how much space I have to work with. Saint Vincent is a team outside the bottom echelon in CONCACAF but not one who is a going to really challenge to take the group. It's unfortunate that they haven't been able to string together some positive results and have fallen so far down in the continental rankings (they were 13th in CONCACAF last qualifying campaign). I wouldn't rule them out entirely though; in a pair of friendlies with "top-seeded" Grenada last year they posted a 1-0 loss and a 0-0 draw. If they can repeat that performance then thye might have a shot. We'll know a lot more about the form they're in after Sunday as they play a pair of friendlies tomorrow and Sunday against Antigua/Barbuda (ranked 11th in CONCACAF).
September Games:
Game 1
Belize at Grenada
September 2, 2011
Time: 3:30 pm EDT
Location: Grenada National Stadium, St. George's, Grenada
Game 2
St.Vincent/Grenadines at Guatemala
September 2, 2011
Time: 10:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Nacional Mateo Flores, Guatemala City, Guatemala
Game 3
Grenada at St.Vincent/Grenadines
September 6, 2011
Time: 3:00 pm EDT
Location: Arnos Vale Stadium, Kingstown, St.Vincent/Grenadines
Game 4
Guatemala at Belize
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: FFB Field, Belmopan, Belize
Group 5 is very intriguing because I'm not sure exactly where each team stands right now relative to each other. I wouldn't be surprised to see some timid play to open the group and probably a fair number of draws throughout the course of the campaign. Belize/Grenada in Game 1 is a tossup. I expect Guatemala to win Game 2. Grenada should win Game 3 but nothing they've done this year makes me convinced they will and Game 4 is again a tossup. It's going to be fun to watch, simply because there is no overwhelming top seed like we've seen in most of the other CONCACAF groups so far.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Guatemala-4 pts
Belize-4 pts
Grenada-3 pts
St.Vincent/Grenadines-0 pts
Wednesday, August 24, 2011
North America: Round 2-Group 4 Primer
World Ranking
Canada-102nd (10th North America)
Puerto Rico-144th (20th North America)
Saint Kitts & Nevis-122nd (17th North America)
Saint Lucia-184th (30th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Canada
Canada
Possibly the most underachieving team in CONCACAF relative to their talent and potential. Their roster is full of players from both the MLS and European leagues and yet they've recently slipped out of the top 100 in FIFA's ranking, the lowest point in the country's soccer history. Given that, Canada will be very pleased with this group. There is no major threat facing them for first place and they SHOULD be afforded the luxury of taking these games as an opportunity to fine-tune their performance heading in to the next round. I emphasized should because Canada has a bad habit of playing down to the level of their opponent, and if they do that against either Puerto Rico or Saint Kitts, then they will have a tough road to get out of this group. Best player for Canada as has been for much of the past decade will be Dwayne De Rosario, forward for D.C. United and one of the best players in the MLS.
Puerto Rico
Tabbed by many observers as the team with the best shot of upsetting Canada, but in my opinion, they need to be very concerned with Saint Kitts as well. The difference in ranking is minimal but what has to concern Puerto Rico is an 0-3 lifetime record against Saint Kitts, the last loss coming last year in the Caribbean Championship. Puerto Rico has been in very poor form in their games heading back to the last World Cup qualifying campaign. A draw against Honduras highlighted the end of that run and since they've posted 3 wins against much weaker competition and losses to Grenada, Saint Kitts and non-FIFA member Guadeloupe. All that can really be said about that stretch of games is that if Puerto Rico is the biggest threat to Canada, Canada will run away with the group. Anything's possible on the field but Puerto Rico isn't going to frighten anyone in this group with their current performance.
Saint Kitts and Nevis
The real challenge facing Canada and the two teams won't meet until the final two games in November. Before then Saint Kitts must focus on dispatching Puerto Rico. Saint Kitts can afford a loss to Canada but they'll have to head in to that series with the maximum number of wins possible. Saint Kitts is not that far ahead of Puerto Rico. Yes, they have a 3-0 record and defeated them last year but they also posted losses to the same Grenada and Guadeloupe teams that Puerto Rico did (the Grenada loss has since been avenged in a friendly). With no other notable victories since last qualifying run, Saint Kitts will have to be sure to make the most of their first four games where they don't play Canada so they can give themselves a shot at the group come November. Worst case scenario for both Puerto Rico and Saint Kitts? A split of their results which would almost surely mean they'd have to beat Canada twice, a near-impossible task.
Saint Lucia
I won't break out remembrance day music again although it might be more warranted in this case. Saint Lucia is at the very bottom of the food chain in CONCACAF having won just two games since 2004. The 30th ranked team in CONCACAF (out of 35) advanced to this stage by defeating Aruba (27th) on penalty kicks in Round 1. There other win in the past half-decade came in 2010 qualifying with a 2-0 victory against Turks and Caicos (33rd). Best advice I could give to Saint Lucia: enjoy these games. Sometimes you have to make the best of a situation and this is an opportunity for Saint Lucia to play some games against better teams and try improve their squad as a result. If they get the opportunity to be a spoiler for someone then that's just an added bonus.
September Games:
Game 1
Saint Lucia at Canada
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game 2
Puerto Rico at Saint Kitts and Nevis
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Warner Park, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis
Game 3
Saint Kitts and Nevis at Saint Lucia
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Beausejour Stadium, Gros Islet, Saint Lucia
Game 4
Canada at Puerto Rico
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Juan Ramon Loubriel, Bayamon, Puerto Rico
The two games with Puerto Rico are going to be the ones to watch as Saint Lucia is likely looking at a pair of losses. Can Puerto Rico keep pace with Canada and Saint Kitts is the question. Saint Kitts will be the easier victory and if they can get it on the road then they'll be ecstatic. And Canada in Bayamon will be much easier then Canada in Toronto. If they can grab 4 or more points then Puerto Rico will have a shot at the group. 3 or less and they're going to be facing an uphill climb to the end.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts
Canada-102nd (10th North America)
Puerto Rico-144th (20th North America)
Saint Kitts & Nevis-122nd (17th North America)
Saint Lucia-184th (30th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Saint Lucia at Canada
- Puerto Rico at Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Saint Kitts and Nevis at Saint Lucia
- Canada at Puerto Rico
- Canada at Saint Lucia
- Saint Kitts and Nevis at Puerto Rico
- Puerto Rico at Canada
- Saint Lucia at Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Canada at Saint Kitts and Nevis
- Puerto Rico at Saint Lucia
- Saint Kitts and Nevis at Canada
- Saint Lucia at Puerto Rico
Canada
- 2011 to date: 1-2-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-4-2
- vs. Group opponents: 0-0-0
- 2011 to date: 0-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 0-3-0
- 2011 to date: 1-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 7-2-1
- 2011 to date: 1-1-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-3-0
- vs. Group opponents: 2-4-1
Canada
Possibly the most underachieving team in CONCACAF relative to their talent and potential. Their roster is full of players from both the MLS and European leagues and yet they've recently slipped out of the top 100 in FIFA's ranking, the lowest point in the country's soccer history. Given that, Canada will be very pleased with this group. There is no major threat facing them for first place and they SHOULD be afforded the luxury of taking these games as an opportunity to fine-tune their performance heading in to the next round. I emphasized should because Canada has a bad habit of playing down to the level of their opponent, and if they do that against either Puerto Rico or Saint Kitts, then they will have a tough road to get out of this group. Best player for Canada as has been for much of the past decade will be Dwayne De Rosario, forward for D.C. United and one of the best players in the MLS.
Puerto Rico
Tabbed by many observers as the team with the best shot of upsetting Canada, but in my opinion, they need to be very concerned with Saint Kitts as well. The difference in ranking is minimal but what has to concern Puerto Rico is an 0-3 lifetime record against Saint Kitts, the last loss coming last year in the Caribbean Championship. Puerto Rico has been in very poor form in their games heading back to the last World Cup qualifying campaign. A draw against Honduras highlighted the end of that run and since they've posted 3 wins against much weaker competition and losses to Grenada, Saint Kitts and non-FIFA member Guadeloupe. All that can really be said about that stretch of games is that if Puerto Rico is the biggest threat to Canada, Canada will run away with the group. Anything's possible on the field but Puerto Rico isn't going to frighten anyone in this group with their current performance.
Saint Kitts and Nevis
The real challenge facing Canada and the two teams won't meet until the final two games in November. Before then Saint Kitts must focus on dispatching Puerto Rico. Saint Kitts can afford a loss to Canada but they'll have to head in to that series with the maximum number of wins possible. Saint Kitts is not that far ahead of Puerto Rico. Yes, they have a 3-0 record and defeated them last year but they also posted losses to the same Grenada and Guadeloupe teams that Puerto Rico did (the Grenada loss has since been avenged in a friendly). With no other notable victories since last qualifying run, Saint Kitts will have to be sure to make the most of their first four games where they don't play Canada so they can give themselves a shot at the group come November. Worst case scenario for both Puerto Rico and Saint Kitts? A split of their results which would almost surely mean they'd have to beat Canada twice, a near-impossible task.
Saint Lucia
I won't break out remembrance day music again although it might be more warranted in this case. Saint Lucia is at the very bottom of the food chain in CONCACAF having won just two games since 2004. The 30th ranked team in CONCACAF (out of 35) advanced to this stage by defeating Aruba (27th) on penalty kicks in Round 1. There other win in the past half-decade came in 2010 qualifying with a 2-0 victory against Turks and Caicos (33rd). Best advice I could give to Saint Lucia: enjoy these games. Sometimes you have to make the best of a situation and this is an opportunity for Saint Lucia to play some games against better teams and try improve their squad as a result. If they get the opportunity to be a spoiler for someone then that's just an added bonus.
September Games:
Game 1
Saint Lucia at Canada
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: BMO Field, Toronto, Canada
Game 2
Puerto Rico at Saint Kitts and Nevis
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Warner Park, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis
Game 3
Saint Kitts and Nevis at Saint Lucia
September 6, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Beausejour Stadium, Gros Islet, Saint Lucia
Game 4
Canada at Puerto Rico
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Juan Ramon Loubriel, Bayamon, Puerto Rico
The two games with Puerto Rico are going to be the ones to watch as Saint Lucia is likely looking at a pair of losses. Can Puerto Rico keep pace with Canada and Saint Kitts is the question. Saint Kitts will be the easier victory and if they can get it on the road then they'll be ecstatic. And Canada in Bayamon will be much easier then Canada in Toronto. If they can grab 4 or more points then Puerto Rico will have a shot at the group. 3 or less and they're going to be facing an uphill climb to the end.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Canada-6 pts
Saint Kitts and Nevis-4 pts
Puerto Rico-1 pts
Saint Lucia-0 pts
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
North America: Round 2-Group 3 Primer
[ed.] Double post of groups today. I'll be on vacation next week so I want to get all the primers for the groups playing in September done this week. Speaking of vacation, I'll be away from a computer from August 28th through September 2nd. Yes, September 2nd is a gameday. I'll have access to a computer in the evening that day so I'll probably just do a scoreboard when I get home and update the CONCACAF scores as they happen. I'll then be away from a computer on the 3rd and 4th before being back full-time on the 5th. What does this mean? Comeprehensive recaps are going to wait until after the games on the 6th, and I'll just go group-by-group like I've done in the previews. Haven't decided what to do on the 6th but if my readership has gotten high enough by then I might just live blog all or parts of the day.
Bahamas Exit
For those that missed my earlier post on it, Bahamas withdrew from qualifying last Friday. Concerns mainly resulted from the renovations around the National Stadium in Nassau not having been completed. Bahamas also cited an inability for fans to see the team as a result of having to play all of their games on the road. I briefly expressed my opinion on the matter in that post and debated about whether or not I should bother in this one but decided it needed proper attention.
Shame on the Bahamas football federation. First off, you have a suitable field at home in the Bahamas. You played your Round 1 home leg at the Roscow A.L. Davies Soccer Field in Nassau. 1600 people showed up and it's a FIFA-approved venue otherwise you wouldn't have been allowed to play there. Is it the 15,000 seat stadium you were hoping for? No. Is it better then playing on the road all the time? Absolutely. So don't throw out the argument that cost is an issue. You are competing for an opportunity for your country to be involved in the greatest sporting spectacle in the world. Deal with it, open up the pocketbook if necessary, and play the matches you're supposed to.
The real loser in this situation? Not the Bahamas team or its fans but the fans/players for Turks and Caicos. Turks and Caicos lost their Round 1 pairing to Bahamas, eliminating them from contention, and now the team that beat them has dropped out because they aren't going to be able to profit off of it. I'd be furious if I were Turks and Caicos. Not that they would have stood a chance in Round 2 but better to see the team that eliminated them compete and put forth an effort rather then back out at the last second.
There is no Group 3 replacement for Bahamas and the group is now a 3-team group consisting of Dominica, Nicaragua, and Panama.
World Ranking
Dominica-133rd (19th North America)
Nicaragua-177th (29th North America)
Panama-65th (6th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Dominica
Dominica
Dominica have been inactive since November 2010 and the Caribbean Championship, where they managed to grab just a single point in 3 matches. Having never played either of their group opponents it's tough to gauge how they'll stack up but they appear to be at a serious disadvantage in a group with Panama, the top seed in Round 2. Dominica will start their campaign with a pair of games against lowly Nicaragua before they have to meet Panama. They absolutely need to get a win in both games against Nicaragua in order to keep pace with Panama and set up an opportunity in November to knock off the Latin American powerhouse.
Nicaragua
Credit where credit is due; despite having played 6 games in 2011 without a victory, they've actually done better then I thought they had in those games. None of their losses have been by more then goals, they posted a draw against Cuba in May. All in all, a respectable performance by one of the worst nations in CONCACAF. That said, full disclosure, my original temptation was to simply post the following here:
It's unfortunate for Nicaragua that A) they drew Panama and B) because of how the schedule works with the Bahamas exit, they are the only team playing two doubleheaders as opposed to just one. No doubt in my mind, they will the first CONCACAF team eliminated from contention, probably on October 7th.
Panama
If you're going solely off of 2011 results, Panama might be the best team in CONCACAF right now. And yes, I'm including the U.S. and Mexico when I say that. 3 victories against El Salvador, 2 victories over South American side Bolivia and a split with the U.S. at the Gold Cup highlight their 2011 campaign so far. Drawn in to a group with a pair of pushovers (a trio if Bahamas was still here) they'll be looking ahead to Round 3 (and hopefully Round 4) from the get-go. Normally I'd say that's a bad thing; in this case not at all. Panama will cruise through this group.
September Games:
Game 1
Nicaragua at Dominica
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica
Game 2
Panama at Nicaragua
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua
Little intrigue in Game 2, Panama should won easily. For competition's sake, I'm hoping Dominica can top Nicaragua, if only to make the November matches between Dominica-Panama worth something.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts
Bahamas Exit
For those that missed my earlier post on it, Bahamas withdrew from qualifying last Friday. Concerns mainly resulted from the renovations around the National Stadium in Nassau not having been completed. Bahamas also cited an inability for fans to see the team as a result of having to play all of their games on the road. I briefly expressed my opinion on the matter in that post and debated about whether or not I should bother in this one but decided it needed proper attention.
Shame on the Bahamas football federation. First off, you have a suitable field at home in the Bahamas. You played your Round 1 home leg at the Roscow A.L. Davies Soccer Field in Nassau. 1600 people showed up and it's a FIFA-approved venue otherwise you wouldn't have been allowed to play there. Is it the 15,000 seat stadium you were hoping for? No. Is it better then playing on the road all the time? Absolutely. So don't throw out the argument that cost is an issue. You are competing for an opportunity for your country to be involved in the greatest sporting spectacle in the world. Deal with it, open up the pocketbook if necessary, and play the matches you're supposed to.
The real loser in this situation? Not the Bahamas team or its fans but the fans/players for Turks and Caicos. Turks and Caicos lost their Round 1 pairing to Bahamas, eliminating them from contention, and now the team that beat them has dropped out because they aren't going to be able to profit off of it. I'd be furious if I were Turks and Caicos. Not that they would have stood a chance in Round 2 but better to see the team that eliminated them compete and put forth an effort rather then back out at the last second.
There is no Group 3 replacement for Bahamas and the group is now a 3-team group consisting of Dominica, Nicaragua, and Panama.
World Ranking
Dominica-133rd (19th North America)
Nicaragua-177th (29th North America)
Panama-65th (6th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Nicaragua at Dominica
- Panama at Nicaragua
- Dominica at Nicaragua
- Nicaragua at Panama
- Panama at Dominica
- Dominica at Panama
Dominica
- 2011 to date: 0-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 0-0-0
- 2011 to date: 0-4-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
- vs. Group opponents: 4-13-0
- 2011 to date: 8-2-4
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-1-0
- vs. Group opponents: 13-4-0
Dominica
Dominica have been inactive since November 2010 and the Caribbean Championship, where they managed to grab just a single point in 3 matches. Having never played either of their group opponents it's tough to gauge how they'll stack up but they appear to be at a serious disadvantage in a group with Panama, the top seed in Round 2. Dominica will start their campaign with a pair of games against lowly Nicaragua before they have to meet Panama. They absolutely need to get a win in both games against Nicaragua in order to keep pace with Panama and set up an opportunity in November to knock off the Latin American powerhouse.
Nicaragua
Credit where credit is due; despite having played 6 games in 2011 without a victory, they've actually done better then I thought they had in those games. None of their losses have been by more then goals, they posted a draw against Cuba in May. All in all, a respectable performance by one of the worst nations in CONCACAF. That said, full disclosure, my original temptation was to simply post the following here:
It's unfortunate for Nicaragua that A) they drew Panama and B) because of how the schedule works with the Bahamas exit, they are the only team playing two doubleheaders as opposed to just one. No doubt in my mind, they will the first CONCACAF team eliminated from contention, probably on October 7th.
Panama
If you're going solely off of 2011 results, Panama might be the best team in CONCACAF right now. And yes, I'm including the U.S. and Mexico when I say that. 3 victories against El Salvador, 2 victories over South American side Bolivia and a split with the U.S. at the Gold Cup highlight their 2011 campaign so far. Drawn in to a group with a pair of pushovers (a trio if Bahamas was still here) they'll be looking ahead to Round 3 (and hopefully Round 4) from the get-go. Normally I'd say that's a bad thing; in this case not at all. Panama will cruise through this group.
September Games:
Game 1
Nicaragua at Dominica
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 pm EDT
Location: Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica
Game 2
Panama at Nicaragua
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Nacional de Futbol, Managua, Nicaragua
Little intrigue in Game 2, Panama should won easily. For competition's sake, I'm hoping Dominica can top Nicaragua, if only to make the November matches between Dominica-Panama worth something.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Panama-3 pts
Dominica-3 pts
Nicaragua-0 pts
Monday, August 22, 2011
North America: Round 2-Group 2 Primer
World Ranking
Barbados-145th (21st North America)
Bermuda-185th (31st North America)
Guyana-114th (13th North America)
Trinidad and Tobago-88th (8th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Past International Records
Barbados
Barbados
All hope is not lost for Barbados in this group. They played a trio of games against groupmate Guyana in May of this year, picking up a draw and a pair of 1 goal losses. Not exactly going to intimidate their opponents in this group but it might give them a bit of confidence that they can compete with them. Barbados will be a thorn in the side of all of their opponents in this group. They don't hold any recent marquee wins but neither do they have any horrendous losses on their record since last qualifying campaign when they flamed out in a Round 2 pairing against the U.S. Without question they need to raise their game; almost every team does and Barbados is definitely a longshot in this group. But it isn't an impossibility for the Caribbean nation. Their first four games are against Guyana and Trinidad. They don't need to take every game but if Barbados can manage 1 victory against each team, they might be poised to have a shot at the group.
Bermuda
Good news for Bermuda. Top-seeded Trinidad & Tobago was the team they met up with in Round 2 in 2010 qualifying. They split the results and lost 3-2 on aggregate. Bad news for Bermuda. They haven't played since August 2008 and that win was their last in an international game. I'm having a hard time reconciling Bermuda's 2010 qualifying results with present form. By all accounts, a Round 1 win and a near Round 2 upset of an eventual CONCACAF finalist is a great result for Bermuda. But then they just stopped playing and their ranking has plummeted (because they haven't played). Conventional wisdom says they're at the bottom of the pile in Group 2, but then again the last results I have to go off of suggest otherwise. This will subsequently be one of the teams I'm watching very closely in the first couple games, more out of curiosity then anything. If they can pull an early upset, then this group is truly wide open. If not then might I suggest to Bermuda to play a few more games. Because they definitely had some momentum last campaign.
Guyana
Along with Suriname, the other South American nation that is a member of CONCACAF. Barring any major surprises, Guyana should be the primary threat facing Trinidad and Tobago at the top of the group. They've met twice in the past year, drawing in a friendly in Guyana and losing 2-1 to Trinidad in Trinidad at the 2010 Caribbean Championship. They'll some time to sit and ponder their rematches though, as they won't occur until November. It's imperative for Guyana to go in to those games with 3 or 4 wins. They can't afford to be dropping games against a pair of pesky teams in Barbados and Bermuda. Sights will be on Trinidad throughout the group but any slipup before that will be devastating.
Trinidad and Tobago
The top seed in the group, they post a formidable record against their group opponents, with 26 wins and just 5 losses in 40 games. Trinidad haven't been at their best since 2010 qualifying ended. They picked up 3 losses in their next 4 losses and haven't come close to their qualfiying form since 2009. A 3-0 win against India recently in a tune-up shows that they're still a dangerous team in the Caribbean. One advantage afforded to Trinidad is their new head coaching hire Otto Pfister. Pfister led a surprising Togo team at the 2006 World Cup Finals and then led Cameroon to a final in the 2008 African Cup of Nations. He's known for having an oft-tumultuous relationship with his players but there is no denying is pedigree coaching on the international stage. Trinidad also benefits from having a number of players playing abroad in major professional leagues, most notably: Kenwyne Jones, first-choice striker for Stoke City in the English Premier League.
September Games:
Game 1
Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Game 2
Barbados at Guyana
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:30 pm EDT
Location: Providence Stadium, Georgetown, Guyana
Game 3
Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
September 6, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados
Game 4
Guyana at Bermuda
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda
My gut tells me Guyana and Trinidad pick up a pair of victories this go-around but for some reason I'm really not confident in either one right now. There are any number of permutations as to how this group will look September 7th which is exciting as an observer, this early in qualifying. Biggest upset potential: Barbados at home against Trinidad.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
.....???
Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts
Barbados-145th (21st North America)
Bermuda-185th (31st North America)
Guyana-114th (13th North America)
Trinidad and Tobago-88th (8th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
- Barbados at Guyana
- Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
- Bermuda at Guyana
- Trinidad and Tobago at Bermuda
- Guyana at Barbados
- Barbados at Trinidad and Tobago
- Guyana at Bermuda
- Trinidad and Tobago at Guyana
- Barbados at Bermuda
- Guyana at Trinidad and Tobago
- Bermuda at Barbados
Past International Records
Barbados
- 2011 to date: 0-2-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-2-1
- vs. Group opponents: 10-18-11
- 2011 to date: 0-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 2-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 6-7-4
- 2011 to date: 2-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
- vs. Group opponents: 4-16-8
- 2011 to date: 1-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 5-8-5
- vs. Group opponents: 26-5-9
Barbados
All hope is not lost for Barbados in this group. They played a trio of games against groupmate Guyana in May of this year, picking up a draw and a pair of 1 goal losses. Not exactly going to intimidate their opponents in this group but it might give them a bit of confidence that they can compete with them. Barbados will be a thorn in the side of all of their opponents in this group. They don't hold any recent marquee wins but neither do they have any horrendous losses on their record since last qualifying campaign when they flamed out in a Round 2 pairing against the U.S. Without question they need to raise their game; almost every team does and Barbados is definitely a longshot in this group. But it isn't an impossibility for the Caribbean nation. Their first four games are against Guyana and Trinidad. They don't need to take every game but if Barbados can manage 1 victory against each team, they might be poised to have a shot at the group.
Bermuda
Good news for Bermuda. Top-seeded Trinidad & Tobago was the team they met up with in Round 2 in 2010 qualifying. They split the results and lost 3-2 on aggregate. Bad news for Bermuda. They haven't played since August 2008 and that win was their last in an international game. I'm having a hard time reconciling Bermuda's 2010 qualifying results with present form. By all accounts, a Round 1 win and a near Round 2 upset of an eventual CONCACAF finalist is a great result for Bermuda. But then they just stopped playing and their ranking has plummeted (because they haven't played). Conventional wisdom says they're at the bottom of the pile in Group 2, but then again the last results I have to go off of suggest otherwise. This will subsequently be one of the teams I'm watching very closely in the first couple games, more out of curiosity then anything. If they can pull an early upset, then this group is truly wide open. If not then might I suggest to Bermuda to play a few more games. Because they definitely had some momentum last campaign.
Guyana
Along with Suriname, the other South American nation that is a member of CONCACAF. Barring any major surprises, Guyana should be the primary threat facing Trinidad and Tobago at the top of the group. They've met twice in the past year, drawing in a friendly in Guyana and losing 2-1 to Trinidad in Trinidad at the 2010 Caribbean Championship. They'll some time to sit and ponder their rematches though, as they won't occur until November. It's imperative for Guyana to go in to those games with 3 or 4 wins. They can't afford to be dropping games against a pair of pesky teams in Barbados and Bermuda. Sights will be on Trinidad throughout the group but any slipup before that will be devastating.
Trinidad and Tobago
The top seed in the group, they post a formidable record against their group opponents, with 26 wins and just 5 losses in 40 games. Trinidad haven't been at their best since 2010 qualifying ended. They picked up 3 losses in their next 4 losses and haven't come close to their qualfiying form since 2009. A 3-0 win against India recently in a tune-up shows that they're still a dangerous team in the Caribbean. One advantage afforded to Trinidad is their new head coaching hire Otto Pfister. Pfister led a surprising Togo team at the 2006 World Cup Finals and then led Cameroon to a final in the 2008 African Cup of Nations. He's known for having an oft-tumultuous relationship with his players but there is no denying is pedigree coaching on the international stage. Trinidad also benefits from having a number of players playing abroad in major professional leagues, most notably: Kenwyne Jones, first-choice striker for Stoke City in the English Premier League.
September Games:
Game 1
Bermuda at Trinidad and Tobago
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Hasely Crawford Stadium, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago
Game 2
Barbados at Guyana
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:30 pm EDT
Location: Providence Stadium, Georgetown, Guyana
Game 3
Trinidad and Tobago at Barbados
September 6, 2011
Time: 4:00 pm EDT
Location: Barbados National Stadium, Bridgetown, Barbados
Game 4
Guyana at Bermuda
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Bermuda National Stadium, Hamilton, Bermuda
My gut tells me Guyana and Trinidad pick up a pair of victories this go-around but for some reason I'm really not confident in either one right now. There are any number of permutations as to how this group will look September 7th which is exciting as an observer, this early in qualifying. Biggest upset potential: Barbados at home against Trinidad.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
.....???
Trinidad and Tobago-6 pts
Guyana-4 pts
Barbados-1 pts
Bermuda-0 pts
Sunday, August 21, 2011
North America: Round 2-Group 1 Primer
World Ranking
Cayman Islands-172nd (28th North America)
Dominican Republic-132nd (18th North America)
El Salvador-78th (7th North America)
Suriname-110th (12th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Cayman Islands
Dominican Republic
El Salvador
Suriname
Cayman Islands
The smallest nation in this group, Cayman Islands have played just two international games in the past year, defeating Anguilla and losing to Puerto Rico. Cayman Islands suffer from the same problems that plague many of the Caribbean and Latin American countries: lack of sufficient funds to support a national team and subsequently very few games played. We saw an example of this on Friday when Bahamas withdrew due to the costs required of fielding a team for 6 games in 3 months. By far the lowest ranked team in the group, Cayman Islands will just be trying not to get blown out of the water against teams like El Salvador and Suriname. Best shot at picking up points will be against Dominican Republic, the only team in the group Cayman Islands have a victory against, although you have to go back to 2002 to when that happened.
Dominican Republic
Severely overrated right now as a result of a pair of Round 1 victories over Anguilla, Dominican Republic is another side that should find themselves in over their head in this group although not to the degree Cayman Islands is. They are 4-0-0 in 2011 but with a pair of victories over Anguilla and Curacao, that isn't going to impress anyone outside of the Dominican. To boot, they have a brutal schedule in this group, drawing both their games against El Salvador and Suriname in September and October. They probably need to win at least 2 of those matches if they want to advance and I can't see that happening. One point to make regarding FIFA ranking: It isn't the greatest predictor of future results. I use it because it's convenient and people like to see it but if you're trying to predict the future with it, it will fail you. It's entirely results-based and its weighted based on how recent the result was, who a team played and at what level of competition was it. Why is this relevant? Well Dominican Republic was 172nd in the world, underwhelmingly beat the 197th ranked team in the world and all of a sudden jumped 40 spots to 132nd directly ahead of Dominica and Puerto Rico, teams who both beat the Dominican last go around.
El Salvador
The powerhouse of the group and surprise, surprise, they play far more games then all of their opponents (14 so far in 2011, more then triple the combined 2011 matches of the rest of the group combined). It wasn't long ago that El Salvador was in the same boat as teams like Dominican Republic, they entered 2010 qualifying ranked 20th in North America, but they scratched and clawed their way through 4 rounds of qualifying resulting in a 5th place finish, one place shy of an inter-confederational playoff. Now, they're ranked 7th in the continent and have the expectation of returning to the final round, and hopefully in the eyes of Salvadoran supporters qualifying for the finals. El Salvador will have been looking forward to this group now for a while. The biggest threat is from Suriname, a team El Salvador has owned in history with 6 wins in 7 matches. Last time they met was in Round 3 of 2010 qualifying, with El Salvador emerging with 2-0 and 3-0 victories. Scary part for their opponents? El Salvador is a much better team now than they were then....
Suriname
Along with Guyana, one of two CONCACAF members not geographically located in North America, Central America or the Caribbean. The nation from the northern coast of South America is the 2nd seed in this group and is the only likely challenger to El Salvador's dominance over this group. One result Suriname can hang their hat on in the past year is a 3-3 draw with Cuba last November. That effort will be required in all games if they wish to advance to Round 3. Because of how the schedule plays out, Suriname's games against El Salvador will both fall in November, and be the last 2 games for both teams in the group. Look for that home-and-home series to decide the entire group, as both teams could very well be 4-0-0 heading in to November.
September Games:
Game 1
Cayman Islands at Suriname
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Andre Kamperveen Stadion, Paramaribo, Suriname
Game 2
Dominican Republic at El Salvador
September 2, 2011
Time: 9:30 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador, El Salvador
Game 3
El Salvador at Cayman Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town, Cayman Islands
Game 4
Suriname at Dominican Republic
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Panamericano, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
No real marquee matches because of how the schedule falls. Only game with upset potential would probably be on the 6th when Suriname travels to the Dominican Republic. That is a must-win game for the Dominicans and they won't have a better shot at it then against Suriname at home.
Cayman Islands home game against El Salvador four days removed from playing Suriname could be a bloodbath.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
El Salvador-6 pts
Suriname-6 pts
Cayman Islands-0 pts
Dominican Republic-0 pts
Cayman Islands-172nd (28th North America)
Dominican Republic-132nd (18th North America)
El Salvador-78th (7th North America)
Suriname-110th (12th North America)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Cayman Islands at Suriname
- Dominican Republic at El Salvador
- El Salvador at Cayman Islands
- Suriname at Dominican Republic
- El Salvador at Dominican Republic
- Suriname at Cayman Islands
- Cayman Islands at El Salvador
- Dominican Republic at Suriname
- El Salvador at Suriname
- Cayman Islands at Dominican Republic
- Suriname at El Salvador
- Dominican Republic at Cayman Islands
Cayman Islands
- 2011 to date: 0-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-1
- vs. Group opponents: 1-1-0
Dominican Republic
- 2011 to date: 4-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-1-0
- vs. Group opponents: 0-1-0
El Salvador
- 2011 to date: 6-4-4
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-9-3
- vs. Group opponents: 6-1-0
Suriname
- 2011 to date: 0-0-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-4-2
- vs. Group opponents: 2-6-0
Cayman Islands
The smallest nation in this group, Cayman Islands have played just two international games in the past year, defeating Anguilla and losing to Puerto Rico. Cayman Islands suffer from the same problems that plague many of the Caribbean and Latin American countries: lack of sufficient funds to support a national team and subsequently very few games played. We saw an example of this on Friday when Bahamas withdrew due to the costs required of fielding a team for 6 games in 3 months. By far the lowest ranked team in the group, Cayman Islands will just be trying not to get blown out of the water against teams like El Salvador and Suriname. Best shot at picking up points will be against Dominican Republic, the only team in the group Cayman Islands have a victory against, although you have to go back to 2002 to when that happened.
Dominican Republic
Severely overrated right now as a result of a pair of Round 1 victories over Anguilla, Dominican Republic is another side that should find themselves in over their head in this group although not to the degree Cayman Islands is. They are 4-0-0 in 2011 but with a pair of victories over Anguilla and Curacao, that isn't going to impress anyone outside of the Dominican. To boot, they have a brutal schedule in this group, drawing both their games against El Salvador and Suriname in September and October. They probably need to win at least 2 of those matches if they want to advance and I can't see that happening. One point to make regarding FIFA ranking: It isn't the greatest predictor of future results. I use it because it's convenient and people like to see it but if you're trying to predict the future with it, it will fail you. It's entirely results-based and its weighted based on how recent the result was, who a team played and at what level of competition was it. Why is this relevant? Well Dominican Republic was 172nd in the world, underwhelmingly beat the 197th ranked team in the world and all of a sudden jumped 40 spots to 132nd directly ahead of Dominica and Puerto Rico, teams who both beat the Dominican last go around.
El Salvador
The powerhouse of the group and surprise, surprise, they play far more games then all of their opponents (14 so far in 2011, more then triple the combined 2011 matches of the rest of the group combined). It wasn't long ago that El Salvador was in the same boat as teams like Dominican Republic, they entered 2010 qualifying ranked 20th in North America, but they scratched and clawed their way through 4 rounds of qualifying resulting in a 5th place finish, one place shy of an inter-confederational playoff. Now, they're ranked 7th in the continent and have the expectation of returning to the final round, and hopefully in the eyes of Salvadoran supporters qualifying for the finals. El Salvador will have been looking forward to this group now for a while. The biggest threat is from Suriname, a team El Salvador has owned in history with 6 wins in 7 matches. Last time they met was in Round 3 of 2010 qualifying, with El Salvador emerging with 2-0 and 3-0 victories. Scary part for their opponents? El Salvador is a much better team now than they were then....
Suriname
Along with Guyana, one of two CONCACAF members not geographically located in North America, Central America or the Caribbean. The nation from the northern coast of South America is the 2nd seed in this group and is the only likely challenger to El Salvador's dominance over this group. One result Suriname can hang their hat on in the past year is a 3-3 draw with Cuba last November. That effort will be required in all games if they wish to advance to Round 3. Because of how the schedule plays out, Suriname's games against El Salvador will both fall in November, and be the last 2 games for both teams in the group. Look for that home-and-home series to decide the entire group, as both teams could very well be 4-0-0 heading in to November.
September Games:
Game 1
Cayman Islands at Suriname
September 2, 2011
Time: 5:00 pm EDT
Location: Andre Kamperveen Stadion, Paramaribo, Suriname
Game 2
Dominican Republic at El Salvador
September 2, 2011
Time: 9:30 pm EDT
Location: Estadio Cuscatlan, San Salvador, El Salvador
Game 3
El Salvador at Cayman Islands
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Truman Bodden Stadium, George Town, Cayman Islands
Game 4
Suriname at Dominican Republic
September 6, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: Estadio Panamericano, San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
No real marquee matches because of how the schedule falls. Only game with upset potential would probably be on the 6th when Suriname travels to the Dominican Republic. That is a must-win game for the Dominicans and they won't have a better shot at it then against Suriname at home.
Cayman Islands home game against El Salvador four days removed from playing Suriname could be a bloodbath.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
El Salvador-6 pts
Suriname-6 pts
Cayman Islands-0 pts
Dominican Republic-0 pts
Friday, August 19, 2011
Bahamas Withdraws from World Cup Qualifying
Details are still sketchy and no release has been made by FIFA but apparently Bahamas have withdrawn from 2014 qualifying. No reason has been provided but it appears confirmed via the following tweet from CONCACAF:
CONCACAF CONCACAF
CONCACAF CONCACAF
Bahamas has withdrawn from 2014 FIFA World Cup Qualifying. Group 3 will now consist of 3 teams: Panama, Dominica and Nicaragua.
All games involving Bahamas have been canceled and Group 3 in CONCACAF is now a 3-team group. It is not believed that the match schedule will otherwise be amended.
I'll have the Group 3 primer up Wednesday and hopefully can provide more details about this at that time.
EDIT: Concacaf press release on Bahamas' withdrawal:
http://www.concacaf.com/page/WCQ/NewsDetail/0,,12813~2426184,00.html
For those not wishing to click the link, the National Stadium in Nassau is still undergoing renovations and will not be ready to host international matches in the immediate future. As a result, Bahamas is withdrawing rather then incurring the extra costs of playing their home legs in a different country.
I understand the rationale behind withdrawing but don't necessarily agree with it. From a cost perspective, 6 road games is a burden for a nation like Bahamas which does not have a lot of money to invest in sport. That being said, withdrawing so you don't have to play 3 extra road games and save money is really a slap in the face to your team. We think you guys would do great and we want to get as far as we can but airfare/hotel/fees for a few extra games? Sorry guys, maybe next time. I'd personally feel a little cheated by my federation if I were a Bahamian player.
As mentioned earlier, all Bahamas' games have been canceled and it is now a 3-team group. The teams will still play a double round-robin, there will just be 6 games overall instead of 12. Match schedule should remain the same, but on each of the 6 matchdays only one game in the group will be contested as opposed to two.
All games involving Bahamas have been canceled and Group 3 in CONCACAF is now a 3-team group. It is not believed that the match schedule will otherwise be amended.
I'll have the Group 3 primer up Wednesday and hopefully can provide more details about this at that time.
EDIT: Concacaf press release on Bahamas' withdrawal:
http://www.concacaf.com/page/WCQ/NewsDetail/0,,12813~2426184,00.html
For those not wishing to click the link, the National Stadium in Nassau is still undergoing renovations and will not be ready to host international matches in the immediate future. As a result, Bahamas is withdrawing rather then incurring the extra costs of playing their home legs in a different country.
I understand the rationale behind withdrawing but don't necessarily agree with it. From a cost perspective, 6 road games is a burden for a nation like Bahamas which does not have a lot of money to invest in sport. That being said, withdrawing so you don't have to play 3 extra road games and save money is really a slap in the face to your team. We think you guys would do great and we want to get as far as we can but airfare/hotel/fees for a few extra games? Sorry guys, maybe next time. I'd personally feel a little cheated by my federation if I were a Bahamian player.
As mentioned earlier, all Bahamas' games have been canceled and it is now a 3-team group. The teams will still play a double round-robin, there will just be 6 games overall instead of 12. Match schedule should remain the same, but on each of the 6 matchdays only one game in the group will be contested as opposed to two.
Syria Disqualified; Replaced by Tajikistan
FIFA announced today that Syria has been disqualified from the remainder of 2014 World Cup Qualifying for fielding an ineligible player.
Article 18 of the FIFA statutes reads as follows:
If a Player has more than one nationality, or if a Player acquires a new
nationality, or if a Player is eligible to play for several representative
teams due to nationality, he may, up to his 21st birthday, and only
once, request to change the Association for which he is eligible to
play international matches to the Association of another country of
which he holds nationality, subject to the following conditions:
(a) He has not played a match (either in full or in part) in an official
competition at “A” international level for his current Association,
and at the time of his first full or partial appearance in an
international match in an official competition for his current
Association, he already had the nationality of the representative
team for which he wishes to play.
While the player is not named in the FIFA report, sources in Syria say the player is forward George Mourad who played in both games for Syria in Round 2. Mourad apparently played in 2 games for Sweden in 2005, which would make him ineligible to play for Syria. According to Syrian officials, Mourad took part in games that were part of Olympic qualifying and not 'A' level games. However a Swedish fan website clearly shows that Mourad's first international game was against South Korea, a game in which he was 22 years old, and which FIFA's archives show was an international friendly (an 'A' level match) and not an Olympic qualifier. As a result, Mourad is indeed ineligible to play for Syria and the correct call was made by FIFA.
As a result, both of Syria's Round 2 games have been awarded to Tajikistan as 3-0 victories. Because the draw has already taken place, Tajikistan will simply take Syria's spot in Group 3 along with Japan, North Korea and Uzbekistan. First game will be at home against Uzbekistan on September 2nd, followed by a road game against North Korea September 6th.
Article 18 of the FIFA statutes reads as follows:
If a Player has more than one nationality, or if a Player acquires a new
nationality, or if a Player is eligible to play for several representative
teams due to nationality, he may, up to his 21st birthday, and only
once, request to change the Association for which he is eligible to
play international matches to the Association of another country of
which he holds nationality, subject to the following conditions:
(a) He has not played a match (either in full or in part) in an official
competition at “A” international level for his current Association,
and at the time of his first full or partial appearance in an
international match in an official competition for his current
Association, he already had the nationality of the representative
team for which he wishes to play.
While the player is not named in the FIFA report, sources in Syria say the player is forward George Mourad who played in both games for Syria in Round 2. Mourad apparently played in 2 games for Sweden in 2005, which would make him ineligible to play for Syria. According to Syrian officials, Mourad took part in games that were part of Olympic qualifying and not 'A' level games. However a Swedish fan website clearly shows that Mourad's first international game was against South Korea, a game in which he was 22 years old, and which FIFA's archives show was an international friendly (an 'A' level match) and not an Olympic qualifier. As a result, Mourad is indeed ineligible to play for Syria and the correct call was made by FIFA.
As a result, both of Syria's Round 2 games have been awarded to Tajikistan as 3-0 victories. Because the draw has already taken place, Tajikistan will simply take Syria's spot in Group 3 along with Japan, North Korea and Uzbekistan. First game will be at home against Uzbekistan on September 2nd, followed by a road game against North Korea September 6th.
Asia: Round 3-Group 5 Primer
World Ranking
Bahrain-100th (11th Asia)
Indonesia-137th (21st Asia)
Iran-54th (4th Asia)
Qatar-90th (7th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Bahrain
Bahrain
A surprise near-finalist in 2010, Bahrain fell one game short, losing to New Zealand in the second leg of the inter-confederational playoff to be denied a birth in South Africa. Not to undercut the magnitude of how far they got in 2010 but Bahrain was the beneficiary of a favourable draw in that campaign. Once in Round 3, Bahrain was fortunate enough to draw Oman and Thailand, two of the weakest remaining teams at the time which gave them breathing room to advance. The same can be said in Round 4, where they drew Qatar and Uzbekistan, two of the few teams at that point in qualifying Bahrain could manage victories against. They grabbed 3rd place in their Round 4 group despite a losing record and got past Saudi Arabia in the AFC playoff on a pair of draws (away goals giving them the tiebreaker). Point I'm trying to make is that Bahrain is a very underwhelming opponent considering they received a bye to this stage. Having just 1 win in 6 games this year adds to that image. If they wish to return to the final stage of Asian qualifying, Bahrain needs to find the form that nearly put them in the 2010 finals. And quickly.
Indonesia
Of the 20 teams in Round 3, only Lebanon is ranked lower then Indonesia. Biggest detriment to Indonesia is their schedule. They don't play nearly as many games as other countries (only 2 in 2011-the Round 2 matches), and when they do it is typically against fellow SE Asian countries, none of which are world-beating nations. For a national team composed entirely of domestic club players, they do not challenge themselves enough to improve to a level where they can compete with the rest of the world. Unfortunately for Indonesia, they're going to learn that lesson the hard way in this group. Having narrowly defeated Turkmenistan to get here, they do not possess the depth, skill or coaching to compete with any of their group mates.
Iran
Another nation with a very proud soccer tradition although perhaps it isn't as warranted as a team like Saudi Arabia. 2 of their 3 Finals appearances have come since 1998 but they only have 1 victory in a Finals to show for it. A 3-time victor in the Asian Cup, they haven't finished higher then 3rd since 1976. Iranian fans do have a slight tendency to overstate the significance of their team. Nevertheless, there's reason for bravado as when they want to play, Iran is arguably the best team in Asia. Key words there: when they want to play. Iran has been plagued by a lack of focus and teamwork for a long time. Inability to close out games, lack of hustle on the field, sloppy tackling, an excessive number of cards, etc. Skill and talent are not the problems for Iran, it's about attitude. Tasked with keeping the Iranian team on track is former Portugal coach Carlos Queiroz. If Queiroz can keep the Iranian players focused on winning, they will be in the mix until the end of qualifying. If they get off-track, things could get ugly.
Qatar
I mentioned this in the qualifying breakdown but I'll say it again; Qatar is going to be the most interesting nation to watch in the next decade. Not just for 2014 qualifying but in all the games beyond until 2022 when they host the World Cup. Reason being is that based on their current world ranking, Qatar is slated to be the worst ranked host nation in World Cup history, an honour currently held by South Africa. No one wants to be embarrassed at home in a major tournament, so I anticipate Qatar to make huge strides forward in the years to come. Will it be enough in 2014? It's possible. 90th in the world, that still puts Qatar at 7th in the continent, within realistic reach of a qualifying spot. I don't think they're quite ready to make that leap though, as evidenced by a .500 record in 2011 which includes a 2-1 loss to Vietnam in their last game. Qatar will definitely be looking to get to Round 4 at a minimum though and neighbour Bahrain is the likely obstacle in accomplishing that.
September Games:
Game 1
Indonesia at Iran
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Azadi Stadium, Tehran, Iran
Game 2
Qatar at Bahrain
September 2, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Bahrain National Stadium, Riffa, Bahrain
Game 3
Bahrain at Indonesia
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia
Game 4
Iran at Qatar
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:30 pm EDT
Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar
Iran gets a nice present to open qualifying with. I do feel they're on the right track with their 2011 results and a new coach. Even with a difficult road game against Qatar, I think they'll be coming out of this set of games with a pair of victories.
Which makes Qatar-Bahrain the must see matchup of this series. Not only are the teams almost equal in calibre, they are very close neighbours (est. distance between the two capitals=120 km). Only one of these teams is likely to move on and neither have been spectacular in 2011. If one of these two can raise their game enough to pull out a victory, they'll have the driver's seat towards a Round 4 berth. Slight advantage to Bahrain for playing at home and not having to worry about Iran immediately folllowing.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Iran-6 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Qatar-1 pts
Indonesia-0 pts
Bahrain-100th (11th Asia)
Indonesia-137th (21st Asia)
Iran-54th (4th Asia)
Qatar-90th (7th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Indonesia at Iran
- Qatar at Bahrain
- Bahrain at Indonesia
- Iran at Qatar
- Bahrain at Iran
- Qatar at Indonesia
- Indonesia at Qatar
- Iran at Bahrain
- Bahrain at Qatar
- Iran at Indonesia
- Qatar at Iran
- Indonesia at Bahrain
Bahrain
- 2011 to date: 1-3-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 7-5-6
- vs. Group opponents: 14-14-17
- 2011 to date: 1-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 0-2-0
- vs. Group opponents: 3-7-4
- 2011 to date: 8-1-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 5-1-8
- vs. Group opponents: 17-7-6
- 2011 to date: 3-3-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-6-4
- vs. Group opponents: 14-20-15
Bahrain
A surprise near-finalist in 2010, Bahrain fell one game short, losing to New Zealand in the second leg of the inter-confederational playoff to be denied a birth in South Africa. Not to undercut the magnitude of how far they got in 2010 but Bahrain was the beneficiary of a favourable draw in that campaign. Once in Round 3, Bahrain was fortunate enough to draw Oman and Thailand, two of the weakest remaining teams at the time which gave them breathing room to advance. The same can be said in Round 4, where they drew Qatar and Uzbekistan, two of the few teams at that point in qualifying Bahrain could manage victories against. They grabbed 3rd place in their Round 4 group despite a losing record and got past Saudi Arabia in the AFC playoff on a pair of draws (away goals giving them the tiebreaker). Point I'm trying to make is that Bahrain is a very underwhelming opponent considering they received a bye to this stage. Having just 1 win in 6 games this year adds to that image. If they wish to return to the final stage of Asian qualifying, Bahrain needs to find the form that nearly put them in the 2010 finals. And quickly.
Indonesia
Of the 20 teams in Round 3, only Lebanon is ranked lower then Indonesia. Biggest detriment to Indonesia is their schedule. They don't play nearly as many games as other countries (only 2 in 2011-the Round 2 matches), and when they do it is typically against fellow SE Asian countries, none of which are world-beating nations. For a national team composed entirely of domestic club players, they do not challenge themselves enough to improve to a level where they can compete with the rest of the world. Unfortunately for Indonesia, they're going to learn that lesson the hard way in this group. Having narrowly defeated Turkmenistan to get here, they do not possess the depth, skill or coaching to compete with any of their group mates.
Iran
Another nation with a very proud soccer tradition although perhaps it isn't as warranted as a team like Saudi Arabia. 2 of their 3 Finals appearances have come since 1998 but they only have 1 victory in a Finals to show for it. A 3-time victor in the Asian Cup, they haven't finished higher then 3rd since 1976. Iranian fans do have a slight tendency to overstate the significance of their team. Nevertheless, there's reason for bravado as when they want to play, Iran is arguably the best team in Asia. Key words there: when they want to play. Iran has been plagued by a lack of focus and teamwork for a long time. Inability to close out games, lack of hustle on the field, sloppy tackling, an excessive number of cards, etc. Skill and talent are not the problems for Iran, it's about attitude. Tasked with keeping the Iranian team on track is former Portugal coach Carlos Queiroz. If Queiroz can keep the Iranian players focused on winning, they will be in the mix until the end of qualifying. If they get off-track, things could get ugly.
Qatar
I mentioned this in the qualifying breakdown but I'll say it again; Qatar is going to be the most interesting nation to watch in the next decade. Not just for 2014 qualifying but in all the games beyond until 2022 when they host the World Cup. Reason being is that based on their current world ranking, Qatar is slated to be the worst ranked host nation in World Cup history, an honour currently held by South Africa. No one wants to be embarrassed at home in a major tournament, so I anticipate Qatar to make huge strides forward in the years to come. Will it be enough in 2014? It's possible. 90th in the world, that still puts Qatar at 7th in the continent, within realistic reach of a qualifying spot. I don't think they're quite ready to make that leap though, as evidenced by a .500 record in 2011 which includes a 2-1 loss to Vietnam in their last game. Qatar will definitely be looking to get to Round 4 at a minimum though and neighbour Bahrain is the likely obstacle in accomplishing that.
September Games:
Game 1
Indonesia at Iran
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Azadi Stadium, Tehran, Iran
Game 2
Qatar at Bahrain
September 2, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Bahrain National Stadium, Riffa, Bahrain
Game 3
Bahrain at Indonesia
September 6, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Gelora Bung Karno Stadium, Jakarta, Indonesia
Game 4
Iran at Qatar
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:30 pm EDT
Location: Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium, Doha, Qatar
Iran gets a nice present to open qualifying with. I do feel they're on the right track with their 2011 results and a new coach. Even with a difficult road game against Qatar, I think they'll be coming out of this set of games with a pair of victories.
Which makes Qatar-Bahrain the must see matchup of this series. Not only are the teams almost equal in calibre, they are very close neighbours (est. distance between the two capitals=120 km). Only one of these teams is likely to move on and neither have been spectacular in 2011. If one of these two can raise their game enough to pull out a victory, they'll have the driver's seat towards a Round 4 berth. Slight advantage to Bahrain for playing at home and not having to worry about Iran immediately folllowing.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Iran-6 pts
Bahrain-4 pts
Qatar-1 pts
Indonesia-0 pts
Thursday, August 18, 2011
Asia: Round 3-Group 4 Primer
World Ranking
Australia-23rd (2nd Asia)
Oman-107th (13th Asia)
Saudi Arabia-92nd (9th Asia)
Thailand-119th (17th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Australia
Australia
One of the newest members of the AFC, having moved from the Oceania zone in 2006, Australia has quickly vaulted to the top of the Asian zone, having been the top finisher in 2010 qualifying and just recently finishing second to Japan at the 2011 Asian Cup. Stylistically, Australia is very different from many other teams in Asia. Where most Asian teams place an emphasis on ball control and time of possession, Australia is content to play more of a European-style, counter-attacking and sacrificing possession for scoring chances. This contrast in style makes for very intriguing matchups as a spectator, as you don't usually see drastic clashes in style outside of the World Cup Finals or the Confederations Cup. Biggest challenge for Australia this campaign will be in roster selection. Many of the stalwarts on the national team are in to their 30's now and are perhaps passing the prime of the careers. Most notable case of this is longtime goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer who is 38 and will be 41 by the time the Finals come around. No other goalkeeper called within the last year for Australia has played more then 4 games internationally.
Oman
Another possible sleeper in the Asian zone, Oman has not lost a game since October 2010, in a friendly to Belarus. They hold an abysmal record againt group opponents, thanks in large part to a 1-13-2 record against neighbour Saudi Arabia, but it is worth noting that the win and 2 draws are the results of the last 3 matches played, and they have not lost to Saudi Arabia since early 2004. Oman's first game in this group will be against Saudi Arabia and if they can continue the 3-game unbeaten streak against them, they could be poised to pull an upset in this group. Best player for Oman: goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi, who plays for Wigan in the English Premier League and is one of the only Oman players based in Europe.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia boasts one of the proudest football traditions in the world, and has typically the class of the field of all the Gulf nations. They had a string of 4 straight World Cup finals appearances snapped in 210 qualifying by Bahrain. Since 1984, they've hoisted the Asian Cup three times and finished as runners-up an additional three times. In spite of this they've fallen on hard times of late, falling to 9th in the continent and possessing a losing record in the 2011 calendar year. One factor that is certain to boost their confidence is their record against this group, particularly Oman and Thailand. Of 31 games against their group opponents, only 3 times have they been on the losing end. Regardless of current struggles, that is an impressive feat will surely make their opponents nervous about facing the Saudi team. One thing they certainly aren't short on is experience. No less then 7 members of their 2011 Asian Cup team have made at least 50 appearances for the national team.
Thailand
I don't like to say a team doesn't have a chance in a group since a lifetime of following sport has taught me that anything can happen, but I'm entirely confident in saying Thailand will not be featuring Round 4 of Asian qualifying. October 2008 was the last time in which they defeated a team currently ranked higher then them (North Korea). They're hopelessly outclassed by both Australia and Saudi Arabia and the one team closest to them in ranking (Oman), defeated them twice at this stage in the last qualifying campaign. Thailand should put up little fight in this group and all the other group members will be disappointed if they do not take 6 of 6 points from Thailand in their matches.
September Games:
Game 1
Thailand at Australia
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 am EDT
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
Game 2
Saudi Arabia at Oman
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EDT
Location: Seeb Stadium, Muscat, Oman
Game 3
Oman at Thailand
September 6, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand
Game 4
Australia at Saudi Arabia
September 6, 2011
Time: 1:30 pm EDT
Location: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
2 big games for September and as you'll see develop as a trend, they're the two not involving Thailand. Saudi Arabia's visit to Oman will be the first. 13 career wins in 16 matches for Saudi Arabia against their neighbour means we little when the last win came 7 years ago. Saudi Arabia desperately needs a win with Australia visiting 4 days later. Oman can relax slightly knowing Thailand immediately follows but a victory over Saudi Arabia could open a sizeable gap between the Gulf rivals.
Australia-Saudi Arabia is not the just one of the biggest games in this group but in world qualifying as a whole. On paper, Australia will be favoured but as it usually does for them, travel concerns will play a role, having such a short turnaround between their game in Brisbane and their game in Dammam. Against a fatigued Australian side, Saudi Arabia could pull the upset on home soil.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Australia-4 pts
Oman-4 pts
Saudi Arabia-2 pts
Thailand-0 pts
Australia-23rd (2nd Asia)
Oman-107th (13th Asia)
Saudi Arabia-92nd (9th Asia)
Thailand-119th (17th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Thailand at Australia
- Saudi Arabia at Oman
- Oman at Thailand
- Australia at Saudi Arabia
- Oman at Australia
- Saudi Arabia at Thailand
- Thailand at Saudi Arabia
- Australia at Oman
- Oman at Saudi Arabia
- Australia at Thailand
- Saudi Arabia at Australia
- Thailand at Oman
Australia
- 2011 to date: 7-1-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 10-3-4
- vs. Group Opponents: 5-1-2
- 2011 to date: 4-0-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-2-2
- vs. Group Opponents: 4-18-4
- 2011 to date: 2-4-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-3-5
- vs. Group Opponents: 25-3-3
- 2011 to date: 2-0-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-5-2
- vs. Group Opponents: 4-16-1
Australia
One of the newest members of the AFC, having moved from the Oceania zone in 2006, Australia has quickly vaulted to the top of the Asian zone, having been the top finisher in 2010 qualifying and just recently finishing second to Japan at the 2011 Asian Cup. Stylistically, Australia is very different from many other teams in Asia. Where most Asian teams place an emphasis on ball control and time of possession, Australia is content to play more of a European-style, counter-attacking and sacrificing possession for scoring chances. This contrast in style makes for very intriguing matchups as a spectator, as you don't usually see drastic clashes in style outside of the World Cup Finals or the Confederations Cup. Biggest challenge for Australia this campaign will be in roster selection. Many of the stalwarts on the national team are in to their 30's now and are perhaps passing the prime of the careers. Most notable case of this is longtime goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer who is 38 and will be 41 by the time the Finals come around. No other goalkeeper called within the last year for Australia has played more then 4 games internationally.
Oman
Another possible sleeper in the Asian zone, Oman has not lost a game since October 2010, in a friendly to Belarus. They hold an abysmal record againt group opponents, thanks in large part to a 1-13-2 record against neighbour Saudi Arabia, but it is worth noting that the win and 2 draws are the results of the last 3 matches played, and they have not lost to Saudi Arabia since early 2004. Oman's first game in this group will be against Saudi Arabia and if they can continue the 3-game unbeaten streak against them, they could be poised to pull an upset in this group. Best player for Oman: goalkeeper Ali Al-Habsi, who plays for Wigan in the English Premier League and is one of the only Oman players based in Europe.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia boasts one of the proudest football traditions in the world, and has typically the class of the field of all the Gulf nations. They had a string of 4 straight World Cup finals appearances snapped in 210 qualifying by Bahrain. Since 1984, they've hoisted the Asian Cup three times and finished as runners-up an additional three times. In spite of this they've fallen on hard times of late, falling to 9th in the continent and possessing a losing record in the 2011 calendar year. One factor that is certain to boost their confidence is their record against this group, particularly Oman and Thailand. Of 31 games against their group opponents, only 3 times have they been on the losing end. Regardless of current struggles, that is an impressive feat will surely make their opponents nervous about facing the Saudi team. One thing they certainly aren't short on is experience. No less then 7 members of their 2011 Asian Cup team have made at least 50 appearances for the national team.
Thailand
I don't like to say a team doesn't have a chance in a group since a lifetime of following sport has taught me that anything can happen, but I'm entirely confident in saying Thailand will not be featuring Round 4 of Asian qualifying. October 2008 was the last time in which they defeated a team currently ranked higher then them (North Korea). They're hopelessly outclassed by both Australia and Saudi Arabia and the one team closest to them in ranking (Oman), defeated them twice at this stage in the last qualifying campaign. Thailand should put up little fight in this group and all the other group members will be disappointed if they do not take 6 of 6 points from Thailand in their matches.
September Games:
Game 1
Thailand at Australia
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:00 am EDT
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia
Game 2
Saudi Arabia at Oman
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:00 am EDT
Location: Seeb Stadium, Muscat, Oman
Game 3
Oman at Thailand
September 6, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Rajamangala Stadium, Bangkok, Thailand
Game 4
Australia at Saudi Arabia
September 6, 2011
Time: 1:30 pm EDT
Location: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Dammam, Saudi Arabia
2 big games for September and as you'll see develop as a trend, they're the two not involving Thailand. Saudi Arabia's visit to Oman will be the first. 13 career wins in 16 matches for Saudi Arabia against their neighbour means we little when the last win came 7 years ago. Saudi Arabia desperately needs a win with Australia visiting 4 days later. Oman can relax slightly knowing Thailand immediately follows but a victory over Saudi Arabia could open a sizeable gap between the Gulf rivals.
Australia-Saudi Arabia is not the just one of the biggest games in this group but in world qualifying as a whole. On paper, Australia will be favoured but as it usually does for them, travel concerns will play a role, having such a short turnaround between their game in Brisbane and their game in Dammam. Against a fatigued Australian side, Saudi Arabia could pull the upset on home soil.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Australia-4 pts
Oman-4 pts
Saudi Arabia-2 pts
Thailand-0 pts
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Asia: Round 3-Group 3 Primer
World Ranking
Japan-16th (1st Asia)
North Korea-115th (16th Asia)
Syria-104th (12th Asia)
Uzbekistan-83rd (6th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Japan
Japan
Undoubtedly the top team in Asia right now, ranked #1 on the continent and fresh off a victory in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup earlier this year. Japan was rewarded for that victory with about as difficult of a qualifying draw you could imagine. The only qualifying group in Asia with two 2010 finals participants (North Korea), Japan also has to deal with a Syrian team that dropped just two games last campaign and an Uzbek side that was in the semifinals of the Asian Cup. With a roster bolstered by a majority of Europe-based players, Japan should be a strong contender to return to the finals in 2014. Led by CSKA Moscow forward Keisuke Honda, Japan's attacking players will need to be focused on finding the net more then ever in this group which features a bevy of defensive-minded teams, particularly North Korea. Very difficult group for Japan who will be relying heavily on their talent advantage to get them through.
North Korea
The surprise inclusion of the 2010 Finals, North Korean football has plummeted back down to Earth since their 2010 qualifying campaign. They bombed at the Finals, dropping all 3 games and allowing 12 goals in the process. The only meaningful games they've played since were in the 2011 Asian Cup, where they could only manage a draw with U.A.E. in 3 games. Nevertheless, the North Korean's style remains a challenge for any team to deal with. You will see it particularly in a long qualifying stage like in the World Cup campaign, but North Korea has a tendency to view a draw as a win. 0-0 is a score the North Koreans always seem to strive for and if they can manage a goal then great, 1-0 victory! Sounds a little counter-productive, until you see that they went 6-2-6 in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 qualifying. In those 14 games: 11 goals for, 5 goals against. Not a team that will pick up a ton of wins, but a team that certainly won't take a lot of losses either, which makes them a very dangerous opponent in qualifying.
Syria
You know it's a tough group when the 12th ranked team in the continent is best guess for a fourth-place finisher. Syria has been very impressive in 2011. Narrow losses to Saudi Arabia and Japan at the Asian Cup were followed by a victory against Jordan. Since, they've defeated Iraq and Jordan again amongst others establishing themselves as a tough opponent in the Asian zone. Biggest hurdle for Syria will be in containing the explosive offensive attacks that Japan and Uzbekistan possess. In 10 games in 2011, Syria has posted just one shutout, in Round 2 qualifying against Tajikistan. With less talent and depth then the other sides in the group, Syria cannot afford to be surrendering goals at the pace they have been as they lack the firepower to make up for it. Also a challenge for Syria: travel. Due to political strife, they were unable to play at home in Round 2 and are the only unconfirmed venue for the first set of Asian home games, which leads me to believe they won't be playing in Syria any time soon. With 2 trips to the Far East and a trip to Central Asia already in the cards, not being able to play at home could cripple the Syrian side.
Uzbekistan
I've said previously but I'll say it again: the darkhorse team worldwide that I think stands a great chance at qualifying. Not sure if they should be considered an underdog ranked 6th in the conference and fresh off a semifinal performance at the continental cup, but the reaction I generally get when I say Uzbekistan could qualify is incredulity so darkhorse label applies. Uzbekistan got to the final round of qualifying in 2010 but struggled in a group that featured the likes of Australia and Japan. They've drawn an equally arduous task in this group but a roster that is almost entirely returning from that campaign with the experience gained should be prepared to handle adversity this time around. The ability to score a lot of goals combined with staunch goalkeeping from Ignatiy Nesterov should give Uzbekistan all the tools required to advance to Round 4.
September Games
Game 1
North Korea at Japan
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:25 am EDT
Location: Saitama Stadium, Saitama, Japan
Game 2
Uzbekistan at Syria
September 2, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: TBA (Syria's Round 2 home leg was played in Amman, Jordan)
Game 3
Syria at North Korea
September 6, 2011
Time: 2:30 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea
Game 4
Japan at Uzbekistan
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Syria's the big loser in September matches. Uzbekistan will be a tough opener outside of Syria, and they'll have to immediately follow that with a cross-continent trip to Pyongyang to face the team they might actually be able to defeat more often then not. They're in serious danger of being buried at the bottom of this group right off the bat.
Japan and North Korea form an intriguing opening match, particularly to see what form North Korea is on. If the game is close then North Korea should be a threat in Group 3. If it's a blowout, then Japan and Uzbekistan are probably looking good to advance, with first place likely in the balance when they meet in Tashkent on the 6th.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts
Japan-16th (1st Asia)
North Korea-115th (16th Asia)
Syria-104th (12th Asia)
Uzbekistan-83rd (6th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- North Korea at Japan
- Uzbekistan at Syria
- Syria at North Korea
- Japan at Uzbekistan
- Syria at Japan
- Uzbekistan at North Korea
- North Korea at Uzbekistan
- Japan at Syria
- Syria at Uzbekistan
- Japan at North Korea
- Uzbekistan at Japan
- North Korea at Syria
Japan
- 2011 to date: 5-0-4
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 10-3-5
- vs. Group Opponents: 17-5-7
- 2011 to date: 4-4-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-5-6
- vs. Group Opponents: 7-8-8
- 2011 to date: 5-3-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 6-2-2
- vs. Group Opponents: 2-8-3
- 2011 to date: 5-5-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-7-1
- vs. Group Opponents: 1-6-4
Japan
Undoubtedly the top team in Asia right now, ranked #1 on the continent and fresh off a victory in the 2011 AFC Asian Cup earlier this year. Japan was rewarded for that victory with about as difficult of a qualifying draw you could imagine. The only qualifying group in Asia with two 2010 finals participants (North Korea), Japan also has to deal with a Syrian team that dropped just two games last campaign and an Uzbek side that was in the semifinals of the Asian Cup. With a roster bolstered by a majority of Europe-based players, Japan should be a strong contender to return to the finals in 2014. Led by CSKA Moscow forward Keisuke Honda, Japan's attacking players will need to be focused on finding the net more then ever in this group which features a bevy of defensive-minded teams, particularly North Korea. Very difficult group for Japan who will be relying heavily on their talent advantage to get them through.
North Korea
The surprise inclusion of the 2010 Finals, North Korean football has plummeted back down to Earth since their 2010 qualifying campaign. They bombed at the Finals, dropping all 3 games and allowing 12 goals in the process. The only meaningful games they've played since were in the 2011 Asian Cup, where they could only manage a draw with U.A.E. in 3 games. Nevertheless, the North Korean's style remains a challenge for any team to deal with. You will see it particularly in a long qualifying stage like in the World Cup campaign, but North Korea has a tendency to view a draw as a win. 0-0 is a score the North Koreans always seem to strive for and if they can manage a goal then great, 1-0 victory! Sounds a little counter-productive, until you see that they went 6-2-6 in Rounds 3 and 4 of 2010 qualifying. In those 14 games: 11 goals for, 5 goals against. Not a team that will pick up a ton of wins, but a team that certainly won't take a lot of losses either, which makes them a very dangerous opponent in qualifying.
Syria
You know it's a tough group when the 12th ranked team in the continent is best guess for a fourth-place finisher. Syria has been very impressive in 2011. Narrow losses to Saudi Arabia and Japan at the Asian Cup were followed by a victory against Jordan. Since, they've defeated Iraq and Jordan again amongst others establishing themselves as a tough opponent in the Asian zone. Biggest hurdle for Syria will be in containing the explosive offensive attacks that Japan and Uzbekistan possess. In 10 games in 2011, Syria has posted just one shutout, in Round 2 qualifying against Tajikistan. With less talent and depth then the other sides in the group, Syria cannot afford to be surrendering goals at the pace they have been as they lack the firepower to make up for it. Also a challenge for Syria: travel. Due to political strife, they were unable to play at home in Round 2 and are the only unconfirmed venue for the first set of Asian home games, which leads me to believe they won't be playing in Syria any time soon. With 2 trips to the Far East and a trip to Central Asia already in the cards, not being able to play at home could cripple the Syrian side.
Uzbekistan
I've said previously but I'll say it again: the darkhorse team worldwide that I think stands a great chance at qualifying. Not sure if they should be considered an underdog ranked 6th in the conference and fresh off a semifinal performance at the continental cup, but the reaction I generally get when I say Uzbekistan could qualify is incredulity so darkhorse label applies. Uzbekistan got to the final round of qualifying in 2010 but struggled in a group that featured the likes of Australia and Japan. They've drawn an equally arduous task in this group but a roster that is almost entirely returning from that campaign with the experience gained should be prepared to handle adversity this time around. The ability to score a lot of goals combined with staunch goalkeeping from Ignatiy Nesterov should give Uzbekistan all the tools required to advance to Round 4.
September Games
Game 1
North Korea at Japan
September 2, 2011
Time: 6:25 am EDT
Location: Saitama Stadium, Saitama, Japan
Game 2
Uzbekistan at Syria
September 2, 2011
Time: TBA
Location: TBA (Syria's Round 2 home leg was played in Amman, Jordan)
Game 3
Syria at North Korea
September 6, 2011
Time: 2:30 am EDT
Location: Yanggakdo Stadium, Pyongyang, North Korea
Game 4
Japan at Uzbekistan
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Pakhtakor Markaziy Stadium, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
Syria's the big loser in September matches. Uzbekistan will be a tough opener outside of Syria, and they'll have to immediately follow that with a cross-continent trip to Pyongyang to face the team they might actually be able to defeat more often then not. They're in serious danger of being buried at the bottom of this group right off the bat.
Japan and North Korea form an intriguing opening match, particularly to see what form North Korea is on. If the game is close then North Korea should be a threat in Group 3. If it's a blowout, then Japan and Uzbekistan are probably looking good to advance, with first place likely in the balance when they meet in Tashkent on the 6th.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
Japan: 6 pts
Uzbekistan: 3 pts
North Korea: 1 pts
Syria: 1 pts
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Oceania Qualifying Update-August 16, 2011
Dates have been confirmed for the OFC Nations Cup which also doubles as Rounds 1 and 2 of Oceania qualifying:
Round 1-November 22-26, 2011 in Samoa
Round 2-June 3-7, 2012 in Fiji
Full breakdown of Oceania qualifying can be found here.
Round 1-November 22-26, 2011 in Samoa
Round 2-June 3-7, 2012 in Fiji
Full breakdown of Oceania qualifying can be found here.
Asia: Round 3-Group 2 Primer
World Ranking
Kuwait-95th (10th Asia)
Lebanon-159th (29th Asia)
South Korea-28th (3rd Asia)
U.A.E.-109th (15th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
Past International Records
Kuwait
Team Glimpses
Kuwait
One of likely two teams vying to join South Korea in Round , Kuwait have been on a tremendous roll of late. All 3 losses this year came at the beginning of January to top 7 teams in the region. Since, they have gone undefeated in 10 straight games, including draws with Bahrain and Jorda, a win over Saudi Arabia and a 6-0 beatdown of group-mate Lebanon in July. Kuwait's sights should be set squarely on U.A.E. in Group 2. In all likelihood, one and only one of those teams will advance and they are literally an evenly matched pair. All-time record between the two sides? 14-14-7. Kuwait is a young team with few big name standouts but one of the most experienced team members is goalkeeper Nawaf Al-Khaldi. Kuwait have only surrendered 3 goals in their 10 game unbeaten streak. If Al-Khaldi can help maintain that pace, they will be in good hands.
Lebanon
I said in my Asian qualifying breakdown that Lebanon had as good a chance as Kuwait and U.A.E. at advancing. I would officially like to retract that statement right now. Plain and simple: they are severely overmatched in this group. Lebanon played exhibition games against both Kuwait and U.A.E. in July, losing both games by a combined score of 12-2. They have never defeated either of South Korea or U.A.E. in a senior level match, having played 13 games against the two teams. Lebanon is going to struggle, and struggle greatly in this group. They also have the unfortunate task of a road game against South Korea to open the group. A trial by fire if there ever was one.
South Korea
Far and away the best team in the group, South Korea will be looking to make its 8th consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals in 2014. South Korea has one of the largest talent bases to pull from in Asia with players being called up from the domestic league, Japan's J-League and from some of the major European leagues. South Korea could struggle due to the international retirement of Manchester United star Park Ji-Sung, but the sheer volume of young players they have in their system should make up for his absence. Best player in the side now that Park has moved on is Park Chu-Young, a striker who plays for Monaco in the French Ligue 1. Park is also the new captain of the South Korean side.
U.A.E.
Despite a 4-9-3 record in 2010 qualifying, it could actually be considered a successful campaign for the Emirates. Handily defeating Vietnam in Round 1, they were just able to squeak past Syria in Round 3. Once in the final Round 4, the lost 7 of 8 games, only managing a surprise draw with Iran in the middle of that campaign. They might not admit it but they were overmatched in that group. The experience gained from those losses will be invaluable going forward however. U.A.E. now knows what it needs to do, and what level it needs to achieve in order to get all the way to the end of Asian qualifying. A relatively young squad, only 4 consistent members of the national team have over 50 appearances with the team. Almost their entire roster plays in the domestic league which does not get much press so the team is always a bit of a mystery to opponents. One area that must be improved on is goalkeeping, as they gave up over 2 goals a game to opponents in Round 4 of the 2010 campaign. Expect newcomer Ali Khasif to be tasked with that chore.
September Games
Game 1
Lebanon at South Korea
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EDT
Location: Goyang Stadium, Goyang, South Korea
Game 2
Kuwait at U.A.E.
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Al Qatara Stadium, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
Game 3
U.A.E. at Lebanon
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Beirut, Lebanon
Game 4
South Korea at Kuwait
September 6, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Kuwait City, Kuwait
One big marquee matchup and that is the opening day game between Kuwait and U.A.E. In my opinion, it's more important for Kuwait to get the win at this juncture, simply because they'll have South Korea to face 4 days later. Losing to U.A.E. on the 2nd could put Kuwait at 0-2 after 2 games, a mark they'll be desperate to avoid.
As was mentioned earlier, trial by fire for Lebanon who has to visit South Korea, then immediately turn around and come home to play a U.A.E. team that demolished them not even two months prior. Speaking of travel, look for a possible letdown from South Korea when they visit Kuwait on the 6th. Long trips in short succession between games are never conducive to a team's best performance.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
South Korea-6 pts
U.A.E.-4 pts
Kuwait-1 pts
Lebanon-0 pts
Kuwait-95th (10th Asia)
Lebanon-159th (29th Asia)
South Korea-28th (3rd Asia)
U.A.E.-109th (15th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Lebanon at South Korea
- Kuwait at U.A.E.
- U.A.E. at Lebanon
- South Korea at Kuwait
- U.A.E. at South Korea
- Kuwait at Lebanon
- Lebanon at Kuwait
- South Korea at U.A.E.
- U.A.E. at Kuwait
- South Korea at Lebanon
- Kuwait at South Korea
- Lebanon at U.A.E.
Past International Records
Kuwait
- 2011 to date: 6-3-4
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-4-1
- vs. Group Opponents: 33-27-14
- 2011 to date: 1-4-0
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 1-6-1
- vs. Group Opponents: 4-20-9
- 2011 to date: 7-1-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 8-2-8
- vs. Group Opponents: 22-10-9
- 2011 to date: 3-2-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-9-3
- vs. Group Opponents: 21-23-16
Team Glimpses
Kuwait
One of likely two teams vying to join South Korea in Round , Kuwait have been on a tremendous roll of late. All 3 losses this year came at the beginning of January to top 7 teams in the region. Since, they have gone undefeated in 10 straight games, including draws with Bahrain and Jorda, a win over Saudi Arabia and a 6-0 beatdown of group-mate Lebanon in July. Kuwait's sights should be set squarely on U.A.E. in Group 2. In all likelihood, one and only one of those teams will advance and they are literally an evenly matched pair. All-time record between the two sides? 14-14-7. Kuwait is a young team with few big name standouts but one of the most experienced team members is goalkeeper Nawaf Al-Khaldi. Kuwait have only surrendered 3 goals in their 10 game unbeaten streak. If Al-Khaldi can help maintain that pace, they will be in good hands.
Lebanon
I said in my Asian qualifying breakdown that Lebanon had as good a chance as Kuwait and U.A.E. at advancing. I would officially like to retract that statement right now. Plain and simple: they are severely overmatched in this group. Lebanon played exhibition games against both Kuwait and U.A.E. in July, losing both games by a combined score of 12-2. They have never defeated either of South Korea or U.A.E. in a senior level match, having played 13 games against the two teams. Lebanon is going to struggle, and struggle greatly in this group. They also have the unfortunate task of a road game against South Korea to open the group. A trial by fire if there ever was one.
South Korea
Far and away the best team in the group, South Korea will be looking to make its 8th consecutive appearance at the World Cup Finals in 2014. South Korea has one of the largest talent bases to pull from in Asia with players being called up from the domestic league, Japan's J-League and from some of the major European leagues. South Korea could struggle due to the international retirement of Manchester United star Park Ji-Sung, but the sheer volume of young players they have in their system should make up for his absence. Best player in the side now that Park has moved on is Park Chu-Young, a striker who plays for Monaco in the French Ligue 1. Park is also the new captain of the South Korean side.
U.A.E.
Despite a 4-9-3 record in 2010 qualifying, it could actually be considered a successful campaign for the Emirates. Handily defeating Vietnam in Round 1, they were just able to squeak past Syria in Round 3. Once in the final Round 4, the lost 7 of 8 games, only managing a surprise draw with Iran in the middle of that campaign. They might not admit it but they were overmatched in that group. The experience gained from those losses will be invaluable going forward however. U.A.E. now knows what it needs to do, and what level it needs to achieve in order to get all the way to the end of Asian qualifying. A relatively young squad, only 4 consistent members of the national team have over 50 appearances with the team. Almost their entire roster plays in the domestic league which does not get much press so the team is always a bit of a mystery to opponents. One area that must be improved on is goalkeeping, as they gave up over 2 goals a game to opponents in Round 4 of the 2010 campaign. Expect newcomer Ali Khasif to be tasked with that chore.
September Games
Game 1
Lebanon at South Korea
September 2, 2011
Time: 7:00 am EDT
Location: Goyang Stadium, Goyang, South Korea
Game 2
Kuwait at U.A.E.
September 2, 2011
Time: 11:30 am EDT
Location: Al Qatara Stadium, Al Ain, United Arab Emirates
Game 3
U.A.E. at Lebanon
September 6, 2011
Time: 10:00 am EDT
Location: Camille Chamoun Sports City Stadium, Beirut, Lebanon
Game 4
South Korea at Kuwait
September 6, 2011
Time: 1:00 pm EDT
Location: Peace and Friendship Stadium, Kuwait City, Kuwait
One big marquee matchup and that is the opening day game between Kuwait and U.A.E. In my opinion, it's more important for Kuwait to get the win at this juncture, simply because they'll have South Korea to face 4 days later. Losing to U.A.E. on the 2nd could put Kuwait at 0-2 after 2 games, a mark they'll be desperate to avoid.
As was mentioned earlier, trial by fire for Lebanon who has to visit South Korea, then immediately turn around and come home to play a U.A.E. team that demolished them not even two months prior. Speaking of travel, look for a possible letdown from South Korea when they visit Kuwait on the 6th. Long trips in short succession between games are never conducive to a team's best performance.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
South Korea-6 pts
U.A.E.-4 pts
Kuwait-1 pts
Lebanon-0 pts
Monday, August 15, 2011
Asia: Round 3-Group 1 Primer
World Ranking
China-73rd (5th Asia)
Iraq-108th (14th Asia)
Jordan-91st (8th Asia)
Singapore-131st (18th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
China
Team Glimpses
China
Chinese football fell off after their 2002 Finals appearance. Despite a strong side, they failed to make the final group stages of qualifying in both subsequent campaigns. They seem to have found their rhythm though this year and find themselves ranked in the top 5 on the continent. Key players through qualifying will be Qu Bo, emotional leader and one of the only remaining holdovers from the 2002 World Cup team and Xu Yang, who netted 4 goals in Round 2 of 2014 qualifying.
Iraq
Political turmoil over the past decades has made it difficult for Iraq to compete on a consistent basis at the World stage but when they find their groove, they are a very difficult team to play against. Look no further than their run from 2007-2009. In 2007, they were the upset winners of the Asian Cup, knocking off Australia, South Korea and Saudi Arabia in the process. That win sent them to South Africa in 2009 for the Confederations Cup, where they drew with 2010 World Cup participants South Africa and New Zealand. Dangerous squad and now that they are able to play at home again, they will be a huge threat in this group. Best player is captain Younis Mahmoud, who has 34 goals in his near 100 games with the national team.
Jordan
A team that has flown under the radar in Asia, they are actually the 2nd seed in this group behind only China. An abysmal record against group opponents is not indicative of their current form, as most of those losses came to neighbour Iraq in previous decades. Jordan's 9-0 defeat of Nepal in Round 2 of qualifying will make this entire group wary. No matter the opponent, the ability to explode offensively that Jordan has will concern any opponent. Two names to keep an eye on: Hassan Abdel Fattah who scored 4 goals in 1 game in Round 2 and Odai Al-Saify, a mainstay up front for Jordan and one of the few Jordanian players plying their trade in Europe.
Singapore
The minnow of the group, Singapore boasts just 2 all-time victories against group opponents, 1 each against Iraq and Jordan. Bit of a different strategy employed by Singapore in personnel selection; where most countries embrace home-grown talent, many Singaporean players have immigrated to the country. Perfect example of this is star forward Aleksandar Duric, born in Bosnia. This strategy, while criticized in practice by other nations (Germany, for example) has allowed Singapore the opportunity to compete at a higher level by not relying solely on a small Singaporean talent base. Duric is the man to watch with this team not only because of his scoring ability but because of his age. At 41, he is one of the oldest members of a national team in the world. More impressive: He only started playing internationally 4 years ago...
September Games
Game 1
Singapore at China
September 2, 2011
Time: TBD
Location: Tuodong Stadium, Kunming, China
Game 2
Jordan at Iraq
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil, Iraq
Game 3
Iraq at Singapore
September 6, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Jalan Besar Stadium, Jalan Besar, Singapore
Game 4
China at Jordan
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EDT
Location: Amman International Stadium, Amman, Jordan
The first round of games will be played within a week and in my opinion the first series of games in any group are the most important. You need to get off to a fast start in order to take some of the pressure off. Each team has to play 6 games and odds are everyone will lose at some point in the campaign. You absolutely want to give yourself some breathing room off the start so you don't spend the rest of qualifying trying to play catch-up.
One thing to also watch when 2 games are being played in short succession are travel effects. Jordan has a great opening section, visiting neighbour Iraq before getting China at home. Both China and Iraq have long-distance trips to make before their second game and we'll see if that has a toll on their performance.
Most exciting game should be the Jordan-Iraq matchup which is a regional rivalry. Should both China and Jordan win on the 2nd, that matchup in Amman could potentially vault one or the other to the front of the pack in this group for good. Singapore will need to focus on the Iraq matchup. Beating a fresh China squad in China will be a daunting task but they could catch Iraq napping on the road, especially if Iraq does not get the result it wants out of its Jordan game.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
China-4 pts
Iraq-4 pts
Jordan-2 pts
Singapore-0 pts
China-73rd (5th Asia)
Iraq-108th (14th Asia)
Jordan-91st (8th Asia)
Singapore-131st (18th Asia)
Schedule
September 2, 2011
- Singapore at China
- Jordan at Iraq
- Iraq at Singapore
- China at Jordan
- Iraq at China
- Jordan at Singapore
- Singapore at Jordan
- China at Iraq
- Iraq at Jordan
- China at Singapore
- Jordan at China
- Singapore at Iraq
China
- 2011 to date: 7-1-3
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-2-3
- vs. Group opponents: 17-5-7
- 2011 to date: 4-5-2
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-3-2
- vs. Group opponents: 26-12-10
- 2011 to date: 4-2-7
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 3-4-1
- vs. Group opponents: 8-24-11
- 2011 to date: 3-0-1
- 2010 WC Qualifying/Finals: 4-4-0*
- vs. Group opponents: 2-12-2
Team Glimpses
China
Chinese football fell off after their 2002 Finals appearance. Despite a strong side, they failed to make the final group stages of qualifying in both subsequent campaigns. They seem to have found their rhythm though this year and find themselves ranked in the top 5 on the continent. Key players through qualifying will be Qu Bo, emotional leader and one of the only remaining holdovers from the 2002 World Cup team and Xu Yang, who netted 4 goals in Round 2 of 2014 qualifying.
Iraq
Political turmoil over the past decades has made it difficult for Iraq to compete on a consistent basis at the World stage but when they find their groove, they are a very difficult team to play against. Look no further than their run from 2007-2009. In 2007, they were the upset winners of the Asian Cup, knocking off Australia, South Korea and Saudi Arabia in the process. That win sent them to South Africa in 2009 for the Confederations Cup, where they drew with 2010 World Cup participants South Africa and New Zealand. Dangerous squad and now that they are able to play at home again, they will be a huge threat in this group. Best player is captain Younis Mahmoud, who has 34 goals in his near 100 games with the national team.
Jordan
A team that has flown under the radar in Asia, they are actually the 2nd seed in this group behind only China. An abysmal record against group opponents is not indicative of their current form, as most of those losses came to neighbour Iraq in previous decades. Jordan's 9-0 defeat of Nepal in Round 2 of qualifying will make this entire group wary. No matter the opponent, the ability to explode offensively that Jordan has will concern any opponent. Two names to keep an eye on: Hassan Abdel Fattah who scored 4 goals in 1 game in Round 2 and Odai Al-Saify, a mainstay up front for Jordan and one of the few Jordanian players plying their trade in Europe.
Singapore
The minnow of the group, Singapore boasts just 2 all-time victories against group opponents, 1 each against Iraq and Jordan. Bit of a different strategy employed by Singapore in personnel selection; where most countries embrace home-grown talent, many Singaporean players have immigrated to the country. Perfect example of this is star forward Aleksandar Duric, born in Bosnia. This strategy, while criticized in practice by other nations (Germany, for example) has allowed Singapore the opportunity to compete at a higher level by not relying solely on a small Singaporean talent base. Duric is the man to watch with this team not only because of his scoring ability but because of his age. At 41, he is one of the oldest members of a national team in the world. More impressive: He only started playing internationally 4 years ago...
September Games
Game 1
Singapore at China
September 2, 2011
Time: TBD
Location: Tuodong Stadium, Kunming, China
Game 2
Jordan at Iraq
September 2, 2011
Time: 8:00 am EDT
Location: Franso Hariri Stadium, Arbil, Iraq
Game 3
Iraq at Singapore
September 6, 2011
Time: 7:30 am EDT
Location: Jalan Besar Stadium, Jalan Besar, Singapore
Game 4
China at Jordan
September 6, 2011
Time: 12:00 pm EDT
Location: Amman International Stadium, Amman, Jordan
The first round of games will be played within a week and in my opinion the first series of games in any group are the most important. You need to get off to a fast start in order to take some of the pressure off. Each team has to play 6 games and odds are everyone will lose at some point in the campaign. You absolutely want to give yourself some breathing room off the start so you don't spend the rest of qualifying trying to play catch-up.
One thing to also watch when 2 games are being played in short succession are travel effects. Jordan has a great opening section, visiting neighbour Iraq before getting China at home. Both China and Iraq have long-distance trips to make before their second game and we'll see if that has a toll on their performance.
Most exciting game should be the Jordan-Iraq matchup which is a regional rivalry. Should both China and Jordan win on the 2nd, that matchup in Amman could potentially vault one or the other to the front of the pack in this group for good. Singapore will need to focus on the Iraq matchup. Beating a fresh China squad in China will be a daunting task but they could catch Iraq napping on the road, especially if Iraq does not get the result it wants out of its Jordan game.
Post-September Standing Predictions:
China-4 pts
Iraq-4 pts
Jordan-2 pts
Singapore-0 pts
Friday, August 12, 2011
North American Qualifying Structure
NORTH AMERICAN (CONCACAF) QUALIFYING
Teams Participating: 35
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 3.5
2010 Finals Participants:
Honduras (4th Group H, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 3 GA)
Mexico (Round of 16 (2nd Group A), 1-2-1, 4 GF, 5 GA)
USA (Round of 16 (1st Group C), 1-1-2, 5 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
The two continental powerhouses USA and Mexico were joined by Honduras to complete the CONCACAF contingent in South Africa. The USA had little difficulty in qualifying for the finals, but the same cannot be said for the other two teams.
Mexico walked all over Belize in a Round 2 pairing and won its first 3 round robin games in Round 3. Losses to Jamaica and Honduras and a draw with Canada put Mexico precariously close to being eliminated, only advancing to the final qualifying round on the strength of a better goal differential then Jamaica. They continued their slide with losses in 3 of their first 4 games of Round 4, culminating in the firing of coach Sven-Goran Eriksson. They put together a string of victories following but it was a harrowing campaign for Mexico.
On the last matchday of Round 4, Honduras found itself on the road in El Salvador needing a victory to have any chance of qualifying. They managed to pick up a late goal to win the match but needed help from the USA against Costa Rica who began the day 2 points ahead of Honduras. Down 2-0 with 10 minutes remaining, the USA made an improbable comeback capped off with an injury time equalizing goal to end their game at 2-2. Tied at 16 points, Honduras qualified over Costa Rica by virtue of a stronger goal differential. Costa Rica subsequently lost to Uruguay in the inter-confederational playoff.
Structure for 2014
CONCACAF has remodeled their qualifying procedure from last campaign. Rounds 3 and 4 are the same format but the advancement procedure has been amended to favour the higher seeded teams. It also is potentially the longest qualifying campaign in terms of games played. It is possible that some teams will end up playing 26 games in qualifying, far more then any other confederation.
In 2010, the procedure was as follows: The 13 highest seeded teams received a bye to Round 2, with the remaining 24 paired off in to 12 pairings playing 2-leg playoffs, with the winners advancing. Round 2 featured another 12 pairings with the highest seeded teams and the Round 1 winners playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners would advance to Round 3. Round 3 consisted of 3 groups of 4 teams playing a double round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing. Round 4 consisted of the 6 remaining teams in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 3 teams qualified for the World Cup with the 4th-place team going to an inter-confederational playoff.
For 2014 the procedure is as follows. Teams seeded 1-6 will received a bye to Round 3, instead of to Round 2. Teams seeded 7-25 will receive a bye to Round 2, and teams seeded 26-35 contested Round 1. In Round 1, seeds 26-35 were drawn in to 5 pairings, playing 2-leg playoffs with the winners advancing to Round 2. In Round 2, the 5 Round 1 winners and seeds 7-25 were drawn in to 6 groups of 4 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. Round 3 will consist of 3 groups of 4 teams, each group consisting of two top 6 seeds and two of the Round 2 group winners. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the top two teams in each group advancing. The 6 teams that advance to Round 4 will play in a single group in a double round-robin, with the top 3 teams qualifying for the World Cup Finals, and the 4th place team advancing to a playoff against the Oceania Champion.
Confused? You aren't alone. Probably the most complicated qualification structure in a confederation where you might as well give USA and Mexico 2 of the 3 guaranteed spots right now.
The Seeding
The seeding was based on the FIFA world ranking in March 2011 and is as follows:
Advanced to Round 3:
1. USA
2. Mexico
3. Honduras
4. Jamaica
5. Costa Rica
6. Cuba
Advanced to Round 2:
7. Panama
8. Canada
9. El Salvador
10. Grenada
11. Trinidad and Tobago
12. Haiti
13. Antigua and Barbuda
14. Guyana
15. Suriname
16. Saint Kitts and Nevis
17. Guatemala
18. Dominica
19. Puerto Rico
20. Barbados
21. Curacao
22. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
23. Cayman Islands
24. Nicaragua
25. Bermuda
Round 1 Participants:
26. Belize
27. Dominican Republic
28. British Virgin Islands
29. Saint Lucia
30. Turks and Caicos Islands
31. Bahamas
32. Aruba
33. U.S. Virgin Islands
34. Anguilla
35. Montserrat
Round 1
Round 1 consisted of the 10 lowest seeded teams in CONCACAF qualifying. Teams were in 5 different pairs, each playing 2-leg playoffs. Games were played in June and July 2011. Results are as follows:
Pairing 1-BELIZE 8-3 MONTSERRAT
Game 1-Belize def. Montserrat 5-2 in Couva, Trinidad
Pairing 2-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 6-0 ANGUILLA
Game 1-Dominican Republic def. Anguilla 2-0 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
Game 3-U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 4-1 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
Game 1-U.S. Virgin Islands def. British Virgin Islands 2-0 in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
Pairing 4-SAINT LUCIA 6-6 ARUBA
Game 1-Aruba def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Oranjestad, Aruba
Aruba Shots: Jean Luc Bergen GOAL, Raymond Baten GOAL, Rensy Barradas GOAL, Frederick Gomez GOAL, Jelano Cruden MISS
Saint Lucia Shots: Zaine Pierre GOAL, Nathan Justin GOAL, Kurt Frederick GOAL, Kevin Edward GOAL, Pernel Williams GOAL
Saint Lucia won the shootout 5-4 to win the pairing and advance to Round 2.
Pairing 5-BAHAMAS 10-0 TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Game 1-Bahamas def. Turks and Caicos Islands 4-0 in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
Round 2
Round 2 will consist of teams seeded 7-25 and the 5 Round 1 winners. Groups were drawn at the 2014 Preliminary Draw in July. Games will be played from September 2011 to November 2011. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: You're going to see a trend develop here so be forewarned. The competition in CONCACAF drops off pretty quickly after the top 10 or so teams so a lot of these groups have 1 team in particular that is far superior to the others. In this group, it's El Salvador. El Salvador finished 5th in CONCACAF qualifying last campaign, and was the only finalist to play in all 4 rounds. Primary challenge for El Salvador will be Suriname, a team El Salvador defeated 2-0 and 3-0 in the 2010 qualifying campaign.
Prediction: El Salvador should certainly win the group. Whoever is the winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 2
Analysis: Trinidad and Tobago reached the final qualifying group in 2010 qualifying largely on the back of a weak Round 3 group, but nevertheless are the best team hands down in Group B, qualifying for the finals as recently as 2006. They aren't the lock El Salvador are to advance, as they face a difficult test in Guyana, a team they played twice in 2010 resulting in a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw. One of those teams will be the one to emerge from this group.
Prediction: I'd be surprised if Guyana was able to step their game up enough to knock off Trinidad. Their games should be close but I like Trinidad & Tobago in this group. The group winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 3
Analysis: A gift of a draw for Panama, who a lot of observers see as a team with the potential to qualify for the 2014 finals. No real tests for them and they can treat this group as a tune-up for Round 3.
Prediction: Panama. The winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 4
Analysis: Like Panama, Canada will be very pleased with this draw. Only possible threat comes from Puerto Rico who haven't recorded a meaningful result since a 2-2 draw against Honduras in 2008, and that was against a 'B' level Honduran side. Look for Canada to advance with little trouble from this group.
Prediction: Canada. The group winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 5
Analysis: Groups 5 and 6 should be the interesting ones in Round 2, only because they have in my opinion the two weakest top seeds in the round, and the talent gap between the top seed and everyone else is not so great. Grenada is the top seed but is coming off a horrible performance at the 2011 Gold Cup, which included a 4-0 loss to group mate Guatemala. Guatemala also knocked off Belize in a friendly last October.
Prediction: Guatemala was the one team coaches of the top Round 2 seeds said they wanted to avoid with reason. They are a strong team and if they can play as they have in the past year, they should come out on top. Both Grenada and Belize are capable of giving them a fight though. The winner of this group will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 6
Analysis: Haiti is the top seed and like Grenada is a very underwhelming one. Difference between this group and Grenada's is that I'm not sure there's a team in Group 6 capable of challenging Haiti, overrated as they are. Antigua and Barbuda and Curacao may have the potential, but they will both need to be at their best, especially when facing Haiti.
Prediction: I think Haiti gets through, and says a little prayer to the football gods in the process for giving them the group they did, as they'll just squeak past. The winner will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Round 3
The top 6 seeds in qualifying and the 6 group winners from Round 2 will comprised the field for Round 3 in 3 groups of 4. While the Round 2 teams participating are unknown, their spots have already been allocated in each group. Games are scheduled to be played between June and October 2012. Even though I'm reasonably certain which teams will advance from Round 2, I'll hold off on Round 3 Analysis/Predictions until the field is official. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Summary
There's a lot of games to be played, especially considering there's another 6-team group in a double round-robin that I haven't listed here. Watch for trends throughout qualifying, in such a long campaign momentum is critical. When a team is hot, they can go a long way (like El Salvador going from Round 1 to Round 4 last campaign). And when they're down, they can get really down (Mexico losing 6 of 7 games over 2 rounds last campaign).
Personally I think the qualification procedure is far too long given the poor calibre of the continent. You could count the number of teams with a realistic shot of qualifying on your hands in this confederation but you still have to play games and stranger things have happened in sport before...
WC Finals Slots Allocated: 3.5
2010 Finals Participants:
Honduras (4th Group H, 0-2-1, 0 GF, 3 GA)
Mexico (Round of 16 (2nd Group A), 1-2-1, 4 GF, 5 GA)
USA (Round of 16 (1st Group C), 1-1-2, 5 GF, 5 GA)
Looking Back at 2010
The two continental powerhouses USA and Mexico were joined by Honduras to complete the CONCACAF contingent in South Africa. The USA had little difficulty in qualifying for the finals, but the same cannot be said for the other two teams.
Mexico walked all over Belize in a Round 2 pairing and won its first 3 round robin games in Round 3. Losses to Jamaica and Honduras and a draw with Canada put Mexico precariously close to being eliminated, only advancing to the final qualifying round on the strength of a better goal differential then Jamaica. They continued their slide with losses in 3 of their first 4 games of Round 4, culminating in the firing of coach Sven-Goran Eriksson. They put together a string of victories following but it was a harrowing campaign for Mexico.
On the last matchday of Round 4, Honduras found itself on the road in El Salvador needing a victory to have any chance of qualifying. They managed to pick up a late goal to win the match but needed help from the USA against Costa Rica who began the day 2 points ahead of Honduras. Down 2-0 with 10 minutes remaining, the USA made an improbable comeback capped off with an injury time equalizing goal to end their game at 2-2. Tied at 16 points, Honduras qualified over Costa Rica by virtue of a stronger goal differential. Costa Rica subsequently lost to Uruguay in the inter-confederational playoff.
Structure for 2014
CONCACAF has remodeled their qualifying procedure from last campaign. Rounds 3 and 4 are the same format but the advancement procedure has been amended to favour the higher seeded teams. It also is potentially the longest qualifying campaign in terms of games played. It is possible that some teams will end up playing 26 games in qualifying, far more then any other confederation.
In 2010, the procedure was as follows: The 13 highest seeded teams received a bye to Round 2, with the remaining 24 paired off in to 12 pairings playing 2-leg playoffs, with the winners advancing. Round 2 featured another 12 pairings with the highest seeded teams and the Round 1 winners playing 2-leg playoffs. The winners would advance to Round 3. Round 3 consisted of 3 groups of 4 teams playing a double round-robin with the top 2 teams in each group advancing. Round 4 consisted of the 6 remaining teams in a single group playing a double round-robin. The top 3 teams qualified for the World Cup with the 4th-place team going to an inter-confederational playoff.
For 2014 the procedure is as follows. Teams seeded 1-6 will received a bye to Round 3, instead of to Round 2. Teams seeded 7-25 will receive a bye to Round 2, and teams seeded 26-35 contested Round 1. In Round 1, seeds 26-35 were drawn in to 5 pairings, playing 2-leg playoffs with the winners advancing to Round 2. In Round 2, the 5 Round 1 winners and seeds 7-25 were drawn in to 6 groups of 4 teams. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the group winners advancing to Round 3. Round 3 will consist of 3 groups of 4 teams, each group consisting of two top 6 seeds and two of the Round 2 group winners. Each group will play a double round-robin, with the top two teams in each group advancing. The 6 teams that advance to Round 4 will play in a single group in a double round-robin, with the top 3 teams qualifying for the World Cup Finals, and the 4th place team advancing to a playoff against the Oceania Champion.
Confused? You aren't alone. Probably the most complicated qualification structure in a confederation where you might as well give USA and Mexico 2 of the 3 guaranteed spots right now.
The Seeding
The seeding was based on the FIFA world ranking in March 2011 and is as follows:
Advanced to Round 3:
1. USA
2. Mexico
3. Honduras
4. Jamaica
5. Costa Rica
6. Cuba
Advanced to Round 2:
7. Panama
8. Canada
9. El Salvador
10. Grenada
11. Trinidad and Tobago
12. Haiti
13. Antigua and Barbuda
14. Guyana
15. Suriname
16. Saint Kitts and Nevis
17. Guatemala
18. Dominica
19. Puerto Rico
20. Barbados
21. Curacao
22. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
23. Cayman Islands
24. Nicaragua
25. Bermuda
Round 1 Participants:
26. Belize
27. Dominican Republic
28. British Virgin Islands
29. Saint Lucia
30. Turks and Caicos Islands
31. Bahamas
32. Aruba
33. U.S. Virgin Islands
34. Anguilla
35. Montserrat
Round 1
Round 1 consisted of the 10 lowest seeded teams in CONCACAF qualifying. Teams were in 5 different pairs, each playing 2-leg playoffs. Games were played in June and July 2011. Results are as follows:
Pairing 1-BELIZE 8-3 MONTSERRAT
Game 1-Belize def. Montserrat 5-2 in Couva, Trinidad
- Belize Goals-Deon McCaulay (24',75',83'), Harrison Roches (50'), Elroy Kuylen (53')
- Montserrat Goals-Jaylee Hodgson (44',86')
- Belize Goals-Daniel Jimenez (24'), Deon McCaulay (61'), Luis Mendez (63')
- Montserrat Goals-Jaylee Hodgson (59')
Pairing 2-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 6-0 ANGUILLA
Game 1-Dominican Republic def. Anguilla 2-0 in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic
- Dominican Republic Goals-Domingo Peralta (8'), Jonathan Fana (42')
- Dominican Republic Goals-Inoel Navarro (18',42'), Jhoan Sanchez (25'), Jonathan Fana (56')
Game 3-U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 4-1 BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
Game 1-U.S. Virgin Islands def. British Virgin Islands 2-0 in Charlotte Amalie, U.S. Virgin Islands
- U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Alderman Lesmond (6'), Reid Klopp (52')
- U.S. Virgin Islands Goals-Dwayne Thomas (1'), Reid Klopp (90+3')
- British Virgin Islands Goals-Trevor Peters (37')
Pairing 4-SAINT LUCIA 6-6 ARUBA
Game 1-Aruba def. Saint Lucia 4-2 in Oranjestad, Aruba
- Aruba Goals-Erik Santos de Gouveia (13'), Maurice Escalona (48'), Frederick Gomez (74'), David Abdul (84')
- Saint Lucia Goals-Kevin Edward (19'), Kurt Frederick (46')
- Saint Lucia Goals-Jamal Joseph (14',20',71'), Kurt Frederick (73')
- Aruba Goals-Frederick Gomez (44',75')
Aruba Shots: Jean Luc Bergen GOAL, Raymond Baten GOAL, Rensy Barradas GOAL, Frederick Gomez GOAL, Jelano Cruden MISS
Saint Lucia Shots: Zaine Pierre GOAL, Nathan Justin GOAL, Kurt Frederick GOAL, Kevin Edward GOAL, Pernel Williams GOAL
Saint Lucia won the shootout 5-4 to win the pairing and advance to Round 2.
Pairing 5-BAHAMAS 10-0 TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
Game 1-Bahamas def. Turks and Caicos Islands 4-0 in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands
- Bahamas Goals-Nesley Jean (32',60'), Cameron Hepple (34'), Jackner Louis (90+2')
- Bahamas Goals-Woody Gibson (OG 4'), Lesly St. Fleur (17',64',73',86',90')
Round 2
Round 2 will consist of teams seeded 7-25 and the 5 Round 1 winners. Groups were drawn at the 2014 Preliminary Draw in July. Games will be played from September 2011 to November 2011. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Analysis: You're going to see a trend develop here so be forewarned. The competition in CONCACAF drops off pretty quickly after the top 10 or so teams so a lot of these groups have 1 team in particular that is far superior to the others. In this group, it's El Salvador. El Salvador finished 5th in CONCACAF qualifying last campaign, and was the only finalist to play in all 4 rounds. Primary challenge for El Salvador will be Suriname, a team El Salvador defeated 2-0 and 3-0 in the 2010 qualifying campaign.
Prediction: El Salvador should certainly win the group. Whoever is the winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 2
Analysis: Trinidad and Tobago reached the final qualifying group in 2010 qualifying largely on the back of a weak Round 3 group, but nevertheless are the best team hands down in Group B, qualifying for the finals as recently as 2006. They aren't the lock El Salvador are to advance, as they face a difficult test in Guyana, a team they played twice in 2010 resulting in a 2-1 win and a 1-1 draw. One of those teams will be the one to emerge from this group.
Prediction: I'd be surprised if Guyana was able to step their game up enough to knock off Trinidad. Their games should be close but I like Trinidad & Tobago in this group. The group winner will advance to Group 2 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 3
Analysis: A gift of a draw for Panama, who a lot of observers see as a team with the potential to qualify for the 2014 finals. No real tests for them and they can treat this group as a tune-up for Round 3.
Prediction: Panama. The winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 4
Analysis: Like Panama, Canada will be very pleased with this draw. Only possible threat comes from Puerto Rico who haven't recorded a meaningful result since a 2-2 draw against Honduras in 2008, and that was against a 'B' level Honduran side. Look for Canada to advance with little trouble from this group.
Prediction: Canada. The group winner will advance to Group 3 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 5
Analysis: Groups 5 and 6 should be the interesting ones in Round 2, only because they have in my opinion the two weakest top seeds in the round, and the talent gap between the top seed and everyone else is not so great. Grenada is the top seed but is coming off a horrible performance at the 2011 Gold Cup, which included a 4-0 loss to group mate Guatemala. Guatemala also knocked off Belize in a friendly last October.
Prediction: Guatemala was the one team coaches of the top Round 2 seeds said they wanted to avoid with reason. They are a strong team and if they can play as they have in the past year, they should come out on top. Both Grenada and Belize are capable of giving them a fight though. The winner of this group will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Group 6
Analysis: Haiti is the top seed and like Grenada is a very underwhelming one. Difference between this group and Grenada's is that I'm not sure there's a team in Group 6 capable of challenging Haiti, overrated as they are. Antigua and Barbuda and Curacao may have the potential, but they will both need to be at their best, especially when facing Haiti.
Prediction: I think Haiti gets through, and says a little prayer to the football gods in the process for giving them the group they did, as they'll just squeak past. The winner will advance to Group 1 in Round 3 of CONCACAF qualifying.
Round 3
The top 6 seeds in qualifying and the 6 group winners from Round 2 will comprised the field for Round 3 in 3 groups of 4. While the Round 2 teams participating are unknown, their spots have already been allocated in each group. Games are scheduled to be played between June and October 2012. Even though I'm reasonably certain which teams will advance from Round 2, I'll hold off on Round 3 Analysis/Predictions until the field is official. The groups are as follows:
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Summary
There's a lot of games to be played, especially considering there's another 6-team group in a double round-robin that I haven't listed here. Watch for trends throughout qualifying, in such a long campaign momentum is critical. When a team is hot, they can go a long way (like El Salvador going from Round 1 to Round 4 last campaign). And when they're down, they can get really down (Mexico losing 6 of 7 games over 2 rounds last campaign).
Personally I think the qualification procedure is far too long given the poor calibre of the continent. You could count the number of teams with a realistic shot of qualifying on your hands in this confederation but you still have to play games and stranger things have happened in sport before...
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