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Germany 1-0 (ET) Argentina (Gotze 113')

Monday, June 23, 2014

Game 36 Preview: Croatia vs. Mexico

CROATIA vs. MEXICO


 Date: June 23, 2014
Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Arena Pernambuco, Recife
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 2-1-0 Croatia
Last Match: 2002 World Cup (Group Stage). Mexico def. Croatia 1-0.
Line: Croatia and Mexico +160
Group A Preview here.
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Croatia (18th), Mexico (20th)
Managers: Niko Kovac (CRO), Miguel Herrera (MEX)
Captains: Darijo Srna (CRO), Rafael Marquez (MEX)
World Cup Appearances: 4 (CRO), 15 (MEX)
Best Finish: Croatia (Third Place, 1998), Mexico (2x Quarterfinals, Last in 1986)
Qualifying Records: Croatia (6-3-3, GF: 14, GA: 9), Mexico (10-3-5, GF: 31, GA: 14)

Previous Game Results

Croatia

Mexico

June 13th - Mexico def. Cameroon 1-0
June 17th - Mexico tied Brazil 0-0

Rosters


















Injuries/Discipline

Croatia: Vedran Corluka (Yellow Card), Dejan Lovren (Yellow Card)
Mexico: Paul Aguilar (Yellow Card), Hector Moreno (Yellow Card)

Overview

The most compelling of the four games today, as a probable Brazil win at the same time means just one of these 2 teams will join them in the knockout round. Oddsmakers see no separation between the teams although Mexico hold the edge in the standings based on their surprising tie against Brazil last week.

Mexico have gotten by so far on the strength of their defence in this tournament. Employing a variation of a 5-3-2 formation, Mexico have yet to concede a goal in Brazil, bolstered by fantastic goalkeeping from Guillermo Ochoa in goal.

Croatia struggled without Mario Mandzukic in their opener but were on fire offensively last game against Cameroon and will pose just as a big a threat to Ochoa's goal as Brazil did.

Neither team are expected to make drastic changes to their lineups ahead of this contest. Mexico only need a draw and may be relying on their back line to again carry them to points, especially if they can notch an early goal. Croatia's strength is in their attack and they will be doing their best to take the game to Mexico as quickly as possible.

Mexico should have a bit of home field advantage in this contest as well. Their match against Brazil had a shocking amount of green and red in the stands, despite the fact El Tri were playing the host country.

Personnel

In the Croatian Third: Giovani dos Santos has been stellar for Mexico in their first 2 games but is not getting a lot in the way of help from his teammates. Oribe Peralta has hardly had his name called so far this tournament and Javier Hernandez has been no better as a substitute. Croatia have been shaky themselves at times, particularly when the ball is played in to their penalty area but they'll feel confident about their chances in this game. Advantage: Even.

In the Midfield: Mexico with a relatively unheralded group in the midfield. Strong defensively but their offence relies on long balls and wing back pressure. Croatia also solid defensively in the centre and can move the ball and make plays through Modric, Rakitic and Perisic. Advantage: Croatia

In the Mexican Third: Mario Mandzukic is the most dangerous striker in this group (Neymar's a winger for this exercise) and brings a very different skill set to the position then Mexico have seen so far. Mandzukic's presence will likely force Mexico's defence back further in to their own area and create space above the penalty area to operate. Jose Vazquez in holding midfield will be crucial in support today. Advantage: Even.

Goalkeeping: Guillermo Ochoa is the so far the best goalkeeper in the tournament, and there isn't a close second. Mexico are in a position to advance because of him and they will be relying on their goalkeeper to continue his phenomenal tournament. Stipe Pletikosa has been unconvincing for Croatia and may be a liability in the back. Advantage: Mexico

Croatia will win if:

Control the flow of the game in the midfield, allow Mandzukic and the wingers chances to get in the Mexican area and don't let Layun and Aguilar stretch the field wide. Mexico won't mind this game being at a crawling pace as it will allow them to control their defensive shape. Croatia have to be strong on the ball through the midfield and control possession which will allow them to pressure on the attack. Mexico can defeat them wide with their speed though so Srna and Pranjic need to very careful about pinching forward.

Mexico will win if:

Keep a body on Mandzukic at all times and do not allow Olic and Perisic free run of the wings. Cameroon had no answer for Perisic's frequent runs and attacks on the wing and Croatia have too many weapons in the centre of the field if they allow Croatia's wings to take over this game. Also need to remember that a draw is a win today for Mexico. Have to keep pressure up offensively but if tied midway through the second half, have to defend their goal with everything they have.

Prediction

Croatia a better team if you look at the personnel but can't discount Mexico's team defence and the partisan crowd in their favour. I think Croatia breaks Ochoa's shutout streak, but Mexico manages a goal themselves and escapes with a draw.

Croatia 1-1 Mexico

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