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Saturday, June 28, 2014

Game 50 Preview: Colombia vs. Uruguay

COLOMBIA vs. URUGUAY
Round of 16 - Game 2
 

 Date: June 28, 2014
Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Estadio do Maracana, Rio de Janeiro
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 18-11-9 Uruguay
Last Match: 2014 World Cup Qualifying (September 2013). Uruguay def. Colombia 2-0.
Line: Colombia -110
Group C Preview here.
Group D Preview here.
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Colombia (8th), Uruguay (7th)
Managers: Jose Pekerman (COL), Oscar Tabarez (URU)
Captains: Mario Yepes (COL), Diego Lugano (URU)
World Cup Appearances: 5 (COL), 12 (URU)
Best Finish: Colombia (Round of 16, 1990), Uruguay (2x Champions, Last in 1950)
Qualifying Records: Colombia (9-4-3, GF: 27, GA: 13), Uruguay (8-5-5, GF: 30, GA: 25)

Previous Game Results

Colombia

Uruguay

June 14th - Costa Rica def. Uruguay 3-1
June 20th - Uruguay def. England 2-1
June 24th - Uruguay def. Italy 1-0

Rosters


















Injuries/Discipline

Colombia: Fredy Guarin (Yellow Card), Carlos Sanchez (Yellow Card)
Uruguay: Martin Caceres (Yellow Card), Walter Gargano (Yellow Card), Diego Godin (Yellow Card), Diego Lugano (Yellow Card, Questionable - Knee), Fernando Muslera (Yellow Card), Egidio Arevalo Rios (Yellow Card), Luis Suarez (Out - Suspended by FIFA)

Overview

The second game of the day also features a pair of continental foes as Colombia take on Uruguay. Uruguay are still reeling from the suspension of Luis Suarez and will have to find some way to counter the Colombian attack without their best and most valuable player.

The star for both teams in Suarez' absence has been Colombia's James Rodriguez. The 22 year old attacking midfielder has been a revelation in the tournament, scoring in all 3 games and making the entire Colombia offence click. Rested in the first half against Japan, Rodriguez's introduction in the second half was the turning point in that game as Rodriguez simply took the game over with his skill and speed. Uruguay's gameplan today has to start with finding a way to control the young star.

Uruguay is expected to stick with their 4-2-2-2 formation, with Diego Forlan likely stepping in for Suarez up front. Forlan was the best player at the 2010 World Cup but has seen his form decline in the subsequent years and at 35 is a sizeable downgrade from the world-class Suarez. A similar lineup was fielded in Uruguay's first group match against Costa Rica and that outing was an absolute disaster for this squad. Have to find a way to create offensive chances through Forlan and will need Edinson Cavani to step up as the primary striker.

Colombia will go with their 4-2-3-1 formation that has been excellent so far. Rested several players in their last match against Japan but should be in full strength today. Biggest selection question for Colombia is at striker. Jackson Martinez filled in for Teofilo Gutierrez last match and responded with 2 goals. Colombia may opt to stick with the in form Martinez as long as that keeps working.

Personnel

In the Colombian Third: Would have been an intriguing battle until Suarez unleashed his inner idiot against Italy. Uruguay was without Suarez for their pre-tournament games and opener and their offence was absolutely dreadful without him. I said before the tournament, no team requires one player for their success more so then Uruguay do, and that player isn't allowed in the stadium today. Cavani and Forlan did not click in their opener and I expect the same today against a quality Colombian defence. Advantage: Colombia.

In the Midfield: Uruguay likely to be in a defensive stance today and have a pair of quality holding midfielders at their disposal. I like Colombia to dominate this stretch of the field though. Too quick in all parts of the game and can stretch the field in all ways with their midfielders. Better on the ball then Uruguay who have been using long balls to their forwards frequently as opposed to working through the midfield. Colombia better defensively than Uruguay and generally move the ball better. Advantage: Colombia.

In the Uruguayan Third: After a debacle against Costa Rica, Uruguay have actually looked competent in the past 2 games and could be at full strength again if captain Diego Lugano is good to go. Except Italy and England don't have the same offensive flare as Colombia and were forced to hang back and deal with the Suarez threat in those games. I expect Uruguay to be on their heels defensively trying to handle all the speed and movement from Colombia and that's not a fight they can win for 90 minutes. Advantage: Colombia.

Goalkeeping: Ospina has been rock-solid. Muslera has looked very tentative in goal. If my research is correct, Muslera also hasn't saved a penalty kick since the 2010 World Cup. Advantage: Colombia.

Colombia will win if:

Maintain their defensive shape to neutralize Cavani/Forlan and get their quick counter-attacks going early. Suarez is the most dynamic but Cavani and Forlan both bring danger to Colombia. Not as quick or versatile as Suarez but both can bury the ball if given time and space. Colombia's defence has been great at preventing teams from having that all tournament, need to ensure that happens again today. Offensively, look for the long stretch passes early and often and get Uruguay out of position. Uruguay's defenders struggle when pressured with speed and one-on-one situations. Colombia excel at creating those issues.

Uruguay will win if:

Need to be all-defence in this game. Won't have nearly the same offensive chances that they've had so far this tournament in this game. Best bet for Uruguay in winning this game; hang back protect your own area, drag the game on as long as possible. If Colombia get momentum going then they don't stop. Uruguay have to weather the early storm, keep balls away from Muslera's goal and get Colombia frustrated in attack. Take advantage of offensive chances if afforded to you but can't be the same attacking Uruguay today that they usually are.

Prediction

Uruguay struggles to get quality scoring chances without Suarez and their defence crumbles again against the best offence they've faced so far. Colombia runs away with this in the second half.

Colombia 3-0 Uruguay

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