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Final

Germany 1-0 (ET) Argentina (Gotze 113')

Friday, July 4, 2014

Game 58 Preview: Brazil vs. Colombia

BRAZIL vs. COLOMBIA
Quarterfinals - Game 2



 Date: July 4, 2014
Time: 4:00 p.m. EDT
Venue: Estadio Castelao, Fortaleza
Overall Head-to-Head Record (W-L-T): 15-2-8 Brazil
Last Match: 2012 Friendly. Brazil tied Colombia 1-1.
Line: Brazil -130

Group A Preview here.
Group C Preview here.
Starting Lineups posted separately once they're announced.

Team Profiles 

World Ranking: Brazil (3rd), Colombia (6th)
Managers: Luiz Felipe Scolari (BRA), Jose Pekerman (COL)
Captains: Thiago Silva (BRA), Mario Yepes (COL)
World Cup Appearances: 20 (BRA), 5 (COL)
Best Finish: Brazil (5x Champions, Last in 2002), Colombia (Round of 16, 1990)
Qualifying Records: Brazil (N/A), Colombia (9-4-3, GF: 27, GA: 13)

Previous Game Results

Brazil

Colombia

June 14th - Colombia def. Greece 3-0
June 19th - Colombia def. Ivory Coast 2-1 
June 24th - Colombia def. Japan 4-1
June 28th - Colombia def. Uruguay 2-0

Rosters


















Injuries/Discipline

Brazil: Dani Alves (Yellow Card), Hulk (Yellow Card), Jo (Yellow Card), Luiz Gustavo (Suspended - Card Accumulation), Neymar (Probable - Leg, Yellow Card), Ramires (Yellow Card), Thiago Silva (Yellow Card)
Colombia: Pablo Armero (Yellow Card), Fredy Guarin (Yellow Card), Carlos Sanchez (Yellow Card)

Overview

Few may have predicted Colombia would feature in this contest against Brazil or that they would have looked so good on the road getting here. While the hosts have plodded along somewhat in this World Cup, Colombia have been flying high, reaching the quarterfinals for the first time and looking like a team with the potential to take it further then that.

The task for Colombia though is a tall one. Beat the host country who haven't lost a game on their own soil in a dozen years and who happen to be the most successful team all-time in this event's history.

In what is expected to be a fast-paced, entertaining match there are two players that will stand out and both wear number 10 on their backs. Brazil's Neymar was expected to be the wonder-boy of this World Cup at home and despite 4 goals he has been overshadowed by another young star. Colombian James Rodriguez has stolen the show so far at this World Cup, notching 5 goals including a highlight-reel opener against Uruguay. Between those two players alone, there is potential for some fireworks today in Fortaleza.

Brazil have kept the same lineup as best as possible and despite calls for certain players to be dropped (Fred, namely), they should continue to do that today. There is an enforced change in the midfield though and it is big one. Holding midfielder Luiz Gustavo will not be around to check James Rodriguez due to a suspension. Paulinho is expected to return to the lineup after losing his starting spot last match and has a big chore in front of him in Rodriguez. Colombia have no injury concerns and will likely stick with the lineup from their Uruguay victory.

With all of the offensive firepower in this match this likely boils down to being a test of the defences for both sides. Colombia have rarely been tested in a weak offensive group and face a Brazilian squad with flare and creativity to spare. Brazil's defensive woes have been more apparent and they will have to be very wary of both Rodriguez in the centre of the field but of the speed on the Colombian wings that have tormented opposing full backs so far.

Personnel

In the Brazilian Third: As Uruguay learned to their peril, James Rodriguez is able to strike on the first or second touch with alarming quickness. If Brazil affords him any space with the ball then odds are they'll regret it. Rodriguez is hardly the only person to worry about though. Colombia switched to a 2-striker formation last match with both Jackson Martinez and Teofilo Gutierrez on the field. Martinez was wide as a winger but both are goalscorers around the penalty area. Juan Cuadrado on the other wing has proven to be one of the fastest players in the World Cup and provides another dimension to this attack. Brazil have looked shaky in their penalty area and are susceptible to quick rushes. That plays right in to Colombia's hands. Advantage: Colombia.

In the Midfield: So how do you rate a midfield in a game where both teams want to play the ball in to the attacking third as fast as possible to create scoring chances...Games are often decided in the midfield battle but this may be one of the rare games where the midfield battle might have little or no impact on the contest. Colombia will likely be happy to passively defend the midfield and allow Brazil to advance before they counter. Brazil maybe a bit more aggressive IF Luiz Gustavo was in the lineup. No idea. Advantage: Even. Can I give an Incomplete?

In the Colombian Third: I trust Colombia's defence more then Brazil's but I also haven't seen them face a team like Brazil recently. Yepes/Zapata can handle the aerial threats from players like Fred and the defenders off of set pieces, but neither is overly mobile. That's an issue when Neymar and the rest of the attacking midfielders are on the other side of the field. Will have to get a load of midfield support in their own penalty area to keep Brazil at bay. Advantage: Brazil.

Goalkeeping: Pre-tournament, I would have said Ospina in a heartbeat. 2 penalties in 5 kicks later and I'm tempted to give Julio Cesar the edge. Ospina the better in regular play, but may God help Colombia if this goes to penalties. Advantage: Even.

Brazil will win if:

I don't think I've ever boiled this down to a one-on-one matchup but I am today. Colombia minus Rodriguez cannot beat Brazil. Colombia with Rodriguez can absolutely beat Brazil. Spotlight is on you today Paulinho. Neymar has been carrying this team so far but Paulinho's ability to shut down James Rodriguez will be the key today for Brazil. Limit his effectiveness, and Colombia's attack falls apart. Fail to do that, and my guess is there's a very disappointed host nation tonight.

Colombia will win if:

Defensively, shutting down Neymar is almost as critical as it is for Brazil to limit Rodriguez. Think Colombia won't mind giving Neymar space on the wing provided they don't allow him to cut to the centre. They have the personnel to defend against crosses and passes from the outside, but Neymar on the ball in the middle of the field doesn't have a defence. Keep him outside and they can play their typical defensive style. Offensively, no adjustments needed. They love the long quick counter to the wingers and Cuadrado/Martinez have plenty of speed to get behind the Brazilian wing backs and create chances.

Prediction

One of the reasons I do the personnel breakdowns is partially to help me with my prediction. In cases like this where it's essentially an even contest, I have to trust which side has the larger advantage.

I like Colombia's defence as a unit even against an outfit like Brazil. Yes they might be slightly mismatched but they're capable of fighting. I do not however trust Brazil's back line against the 4 Colombian attackers and that's the difference here. Too much speed and finishing ability against an undisciplined defensive unit.

Colombia 3-2 Brazil in Extra Time.

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