Next Day's Games

Final

Germany 1-0 (ET) Argentina (Gotze 113')

Friday, June 27, 2014

Knockout Round Predictions: Version II

You may remember that two weeks ago I posted my pre-tournament knockout round predictions. Here's what I had come up with:



That's compared with the actual bracket in the header.

Final tally on teams:
  • 10 of 16 correct
  • 8 of 16 in the correct slot
Dreadful in my opinion. Costa Rica, and the Iberian peninsula messed me up.

Anyway that's not the point of this post. Want to give an overview of the knockout round now that we actually know where everyone is slotted in. Have broken the bracket down in to 4 quarters and will then look at the semifinals/finals. REMINDER AS ALWAYS: I RESERVE JUDGMENT TO CHANGE THIS WHEN I DO GAME PREVIEWS. Without further ado:

Quarter 1


Yes, it appears that a CONMEBOL tournament has broken out in the midst of the World Cup. South American fans have to be thrilled to have 5 teams in the Round of 16. But with 4 in the same quarter, there's no more then 2 that can make the semifinals.

There are 2 constants in CONMEBOL soccer that I have observed. 1) Home field advantage means everything. Brazil would figure to have that advantage but there are plenty of visiting supporters from neighbouring countries at this tournament. 2) Expect the unexpected. On any given day, any of these four teams can beat the other.

In regard to BRAZIL-CHILE, I'm expecting goals and plenty of them. Both teams play fast-paced, sometimes irresponsible soccer but both love to attack. I'm tipping Brazil though due to how they match up personnel wise with Chile. Chile play a 3-man back line which can leave plenty of space in which opponents can operate. That's something Neymar, Oscar and co will surely be looking to take advantage of. I have BRAZIL winning that match.

It's a different COLOMBIA-URUGUAY contest now that Luis Suarez won't be involved. Only thing to go off of is Uruguay's outing against Costa Rica which was poor to say the least. This is a Uruguay team that needs Suarez in order to win games, plain and simple. Facing Colombia won't help either. Colombia has been scary good this tournament. Strong defensively and they punish you for any little mistake on the defensive end. COLOMBIA my pick out of this game. Likely would have taken them even if Suarez was available.

That leaves a BRAZIL-COLOMBIA quarterfinal and I'm completely torn on this. Brazil don't lose games on home soil but I'm just not convinced they're a strong enough team. Reliant heavily on Neymar's individual talent and lose track of players defensively too easily. Colombia work their star players in to their squad's strategy which is why they're so successful. Going with my gut in this game and will say COLOMBIA emerge as the victor in this contest.

Advancing: Colombia
Also have a chance: Brazil

Quarter 2


Unlike the above grouping, there should be little in the way of surprises here.

France have arguably been the best team in the tournament in the group stages. Their shooting fell apart a bit against Ecuador but their defensive line has been a rock and Karim Benzema should probably be alone in the scoring lead this tournament. Nigeria have stretched teams vertically with their speed and power up front but won't have that luxury against this French team. Enyeama will have to be spectacular in the Nigerian goal for them to have a shot in this one. FRANCE to beat Nigeria.

Similar situation in the other game, Algeria go up against a German side that has yet to play to their potential in this tournament. Algeria use their speed up high to get offensive chances and while Germany can be exploited defensively by quickness, their organization and shape will be tough to overcome for Algeria. More concerningly for the Africans though is Germany's ability to pick teams apart in the offensive third. The USA was the only team to hold up well against the German attack and Algeria isn't them. GERMANY in a comfortable win.

That sets up a gigantic clash between France and Germany in the quarterfinals. I think there's only one potential game that can match the hype and intrigue of this game and that would be a Brazil-Argentina final. If/when this match occurs it will likely be the longest game preview I've written. Won't look too closely at it here as it deserves proper attention. I would still take Germany in this match but that could change in a heartbeat.

Advancing: Germany
Also have a chance: France

Quarter 3


Certainly looks different from what I had predicted. I only had one of these 4 teams in the right slot and I didn't have either Costa Rica or Greece in the picture at all.

Right off the bat, Netherlands could not have asked for a better group of teams in this quarter. This is about as easy as a knockout round can get for a team. Granted it's the Netherlands and history tells me they may find a way to mess this up but this is a relative walk in to the semifinals for them.

Biggest concern for the Dutch has to be their first game. Mexico gave up just 1 goal in the group stages and that came in garbage time of their final match against Costa Rica. Mexico area phenomenal defensive team but they'll be put to the test against these Dutch strikers. van Persie and Robben are the top scoring duo in this tournament with 6 goals in 5 man-games (van Persie was suspended against Chile). When you have two players in form that are averaging over a goal per game EACH, you have a great chance of winning any game you play in. I see it being close and I see it being low-scoring but I don't see Mexico being on top at the end. NETHERLANDS to win.

It's always nice to see underdogs succeed and one of Costa Rica and Greece will find themselves in the quarterfinals. As a fan of quality soccer though, my face fell when Giorgos Samaras hit that penalty kick and ensured this match would become a thing. Greece are near intolerable to watch play. Game inevitably gets bogged down and slow frustrates opponents in to trying wild chances on goal that are never going to succeed. Costa Rica started the tournament on a tear before coming back to Earth in their match with England. I still believe their attacking initiative is superior and their defence near equal to that of Greece's. Combine that with better goalkeeping and COSTA RICA should advance from this match.

I sort of gave it away in my preface but I have NETHERLANDS winning in the quarterfinals. Same 2-3-5 formation as Costa Rica but Netherlands simply have better players and better execution in all aspects of the game. No need to overthink this one. FWIW, I would take Mexico over both Costa Rica and Greece should that be the quarterfinal match.

Advancing: Netherlands
Also have a chance: Mexico

Quarter 4


Outside of the CONMEBOL derby happening above, this is the most fascinating of the quarters to me because it's the only one where I see a scenario in which all 4 teams can get out of here.

Argentina-Switzerland is an interesting stylistic matchup. Argentina with the dynamic attacking offence and a really shaky central defence. Switzerland sort of an enigma this tournament, good at everything but not great in anything. If Argentina can step up defensively then I think they're in the driver's seat but I'm not ready to count Switzerland out just yet. My pick for now is ARGENTINA, but I may revisit that come game preview time.

Belgium and USA are incredibly similar style-wise which will either make it a fascinating tactical battle or 90+ minutes of drudgery. Personnel-wise, Belgium have the advantage in every facet of the game. But they just haven't looked very strong this tournament. Not the quick passing and runs that we expected from them and shaky in the back, particularly out wide. The U.S. aren't flashy but they trust their system and most importantly for them it works. Of all the Round of 16 games, this one screams PENALTY KICKS to me. I think whether it gets to that or not, BELGIUM wins but they aren't looking like the potential champion the way they were pegged prior to the tournament.

FWIW, I would likely take ARGENTINA over either Belgium or the USA in the quarterfinals. Things will get interesting though if Switzerland manage to beat Argentina. Regardless of whether their opponent is Belgium or the USA, I think any of those 3 teams could beat the other on any day.

Advancing: Argentina
Also have a chance: Everyone

FINALS





In my little exercise here, this is what I have come up with for semifinals.

The top matchup will be as big a test to Germany's formational strength and organization as anything. Germany have committed more turnovers then usual in this tournament and I feel no other team can better take advantage of that then Colombia. Colombia have been the best counter-attacking team in this tournament and are good enough defensively to hold up Germany. Being played on the home continent, I'm going away from my pre-tournament pick and saying COLOMBIA will emerge from this game.

The home advantage is to be considered in the second game as well (No European team has ever won in the Americas) but frankly I think Argentina will be a bit lucky to make it this far. Weak on defence and Messi has been completely shouldering the load in the goal-scoring department. Netherlands were expected to be in rebuild mode this tournament but they are more then capable of neutralizing Argentina's offence and have the best scoring tandem in the tournament. NETHERLANDS to advance to their second straight final.

Predicting third-place games is always a crapshoot. In my scenario, I'll take Germany, who have finished top 3 in each of the last 3 World Cups.

This leads me to my NETHERLANDS-COLOMBIA final. Personnel-wise, it's a wash in midfield and goal. Netherlands forwards I would give an advantage to against Colombia's defence, but I feel the Dutch can hold up against James Rodriguez and company with their defensive discipline. Yes, that's right folks. I have the NETHERLANDS finally getting over the hump and winning their first World Cup, having lost in 3 previous finals.

Below is my complete prediction:


Questions? Comments? Want to call me a raging lunatic because <insert team> <went too far/didn't go far enough>? Let me know!

No comments:

Post a Comment